I. Overall Landscape: Quoted prices have retreated slightly, yet actual import costs remain stubbornly high.

As August began, the international sulfur market exhibited a distinct divergence: quoted prices fell, yet actual costs remained high. While major Middle Eastern exporters slightly lowered or maintained their official August contract prices—leading to some softening in theoretical transaction prices—geopolitical shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz caused maritime insurance surcharges to skyrocket. This surge completely offset the benefits of lower FOB prices; consequently, landed costs in the Far East remained elevated, and the cost pressure on global sulfur trade showed no signs of easing.

Overall, the primary issue facing the sulfur market is no longer the level of contract quotes, but rather the rise in hidden costs driven by shipping risks, the contraction of export supplies from various nations, and a reduction in globally available spot cargo.

II. Mainstream Middle East Supply: Quotes see minor adjustments; landed costs remain firm, driven by shipping factors.

Kuwait and Qatar, my country's primary sources of sulfur imports, saw their official August price quotes remain largely stable with only minor adjustments.

Kuwait's KPC announced an August FOB sulfur price of $865 per tonne—a month-on-month reduction of $85 per tonne and the most significant price adjustment in the Middle East this month. Meanwhile, Qatar Energy maintained its August FOB sulfur quote unchanged at $890 per tonne.

Calculations based on freight rates and total costs show that shipping costs to China for standard 30,000–35,000 tonne vessels remained between $140 and $155 per tonne, resulting in a theoretical CFR cost of $1,005–$1,045 per tonne. However, due to the situation in the straits, maritime insurance surcharges for sulfur shipments have reached as high as $200 per tonne, pushing the actual total landed cost above $1,070 per tonne.

It is evident that the official price reductions by Middle Eastern suppliers have not materially alleviated domestic procurement pressure, as geopolitical risks have become the dominant factor influencing costs at this stage.

III. Supply sources from regions outside the Middle East have contracted across the board, and global circulation volume continues to decline.

In addition to shipping disruptions in the Middle East, supplies from other key export regions have simultaneously tightened, further exacerbating the global shortage of spot cargo.

1. Indian supplies have effectively withdrawn from the export market.

The reality on the ground is that, while there is no official ban, Indian refineries have voluntarily halted exports to prioritize domestic fertilizer production.

Data shows that India exported a total of 356,900 tonnes of sulfur between January and April 2026—supplying significant volumes to the Chinese and Brazilian markets—but export activity has virtually ceased since May. Consequently, this supplementary supply source from South Asia has completely exited the global trade flow.

2. Turkish spot prices surge amid tight Mediterranean supply

Turkey continues to enforce sulfur export controls; the latest August tender price for the domestic refiner Tupras settled at $849–912 per tonne, marking a sharp 24% increase from June. As a key sulfur supplier in the Mediterranean, Turkey’s tightening of domestic sales and suspension of exports have directly caused supply shortages for buyers in North Africa and Southern Europe, driving up regional spot prices rapidly.

3. Russian sulfur exports remain restricted

Russian sulfur exports continue to decline due to earlier refinery unit damage and maintenance, further constraining the effective global supply of seaborne sulfur.

IV. Industry Warning: Sulfur Shortage May Persist Until 2027 (Corporate Outlook)

Management at Itafos, a leading overseas phosphate fertilizer company, issued a medium-to-long-term warning during a public industry interview on August 5 (this represents a market forecast, not a confirmed fact).

Industry perspectives indicate the following:

1. Approximately 45% of global seaborne sulfur trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and current flows are obstructed;

2. Sulfur exports from various countries are being redirected to domestic markets, leading to a contraction in refinery supply;

3. Sulfur shortages have directly constrained operating rates at global fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer plants.

Consequently, industry players anticipate that the global sulfur supply crunch may persist until 2027.

This view reflects the subjective assessment of companies operating on the front lines of the industry; it underscores the acute imbalance between global sulfur supply and demand, as well as the ongoing pressure on overseas phosphate fertilizer producers to lower operating rates and cut production.

V. Downstream Transmission: Sulfur Bottleneck Constrains the Global Fertilizer Supply Chain

Sulfur is a critical raw material for the production of sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers; current global supply tightness is rippling down through the agricultural input supply chain.

Overseas phosphate fertilizer producers continue to limit operating rates due to raw material shortages, keeping international spot prices resilient and firm. While European farmers have delayed autumn fertilizer procurement due to high costs—slowing the pace of global demand—the contraction in supply has been even more pronounced, resulting in a market landscape characterized by tight supply, high costs, weak demand, and firm prices.

VI. Core Logic and Outlook for the Market

Three key factors are driving the short-term international sulfur market:

1. Shipping stability and changes in insurance premiums in the Strait of Hormuz;

2. Price trends for new contracts signed by Middle Eastern nations for August and September;

3. Whether export supplies from India and Russia resume.

Market Outlook:

Even if Middle Eastern quotes continue to edge downward, landed costs in China will remain high as long as geopolitical risks affecting shipping persist. The overall global landscape of tight sulfur supply and demand is unlikely to shift in the near term, and cost pressures from overseas will continue to be transmitted to the domestic sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizer supply chains.

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