According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the price of MTBE rose from 5,230 RMB/ton to 7,200 RMB/ton between July 1 and July 31, marking a period increase of 37.67% and a year-on-year rise of 42.57%.
The market was sluggish at the beginning of the month, but prices began to surge rapidly as mid-month approached; the magnitude and intensity of the rise far exceeded expectations. Factors driving this included the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in international crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. Additionally, a concentration of export order deliveries coincided with MTBE plant operating rates dropping to a five-year low, further tightening spot supplies and prompting manufacturers to actively push up prices. The market continued to see upward momentum in the latter part of the month, with prices in many regions climbing above 7,000 RMB/ton, supported by multiple bullish factors.
Cost Side: Regarding crude oil, international prices trended upward in July, although the average price was lower than in June. In early July, prices rose as the US declared the ceasefire agreement over, sparking market fears of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Mid-month saw continued US-Iran tensions and Iran's renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz; concerns over a potential escalation of the conflict and supply risks drove prices up further. In late July, prices initially rose before falling; the ongoing US-Iran conflict and attacks on Saudi oil tankers by Houthi rebels exacerbated supply risks, supporting an upward trend. However, by month-end, a temporary ceasefire and the prospect of new negotiations between the US and Iran eased concerns over supply risks, causing international oil prices to drop sharply.
Demand Side: On the downstream front, regarding terminal gasoline demand, market participants remain cautious due to expected volatility in international crude oil prices, limiting purchases of gasoline blending components to immediate needs. However, a significant volume of export orders scheduled for delivery in August is expected to support the MTBE market, particularly during the first half of the month. While MTBE export volumes in August may decrease compared to July—leading to a gradual increase in domestic inventory that needs to be absorbed—the overall demand-side outlook remains favorable. Supply side: During the month, several plants—including Shouguang Dexin, Bengu New Materials, Dechen Energy, Huayi Chemical, Shandong Chengtai, Huizhou Yuxin, Maoming Shihua, Dongming Qianhai, and Haite Weiye—suspended operations. While some resumed production after brief shutdowns, the majority remained offline. Although units at previously idled plants such as Haierxi, Sanjiang Chemical, Lushenfa, Dechen Energy, Shandong Chengtai, and Dongming Qianhai did restart, overall resource supply decreased. Consequently, supply-side factors exerted a bullish influence on the MTBE market.
As of the close on August 4, the Asian MTBE market price fell by $7.80/tonne from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $1,031.53–$1,033.53/tonne. The European MTBE market price dropped by $49.50/tonne, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,229.49–$1,229.99/tonne. The US MTBE market price declined by $52.24/tonne, with FOB Gulf Coast prices settling at $927.44–$927.80/tonne (261.87–261.97 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: The tight supply situation is gradually easing and moving toward a state of abundance. The gasoline market retains some support due to summer demand, and high cost prices are expected to provide continued market backing. Analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the MTBE market will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels, with prices potentially trending from high to low over the course of the month.
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