On August 4, the butadiene rubber spot market saw a slight upward trend; mainstream domestic spot quotes were raised, and the price of the raw material, butadiene, also edged up. However, the extent to which spot prices followed this rise was limited overall; the price movement was driven more by external factors than by a fundamental shift in the industry's supply-demand balance. Regarding actual transactions, despite the higher quotes, downstream buyers remained cautious, focusing primarily on meeting immediate needs. There was still room for negotiation on actual orders, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed across the market.
On the supply side, domestic butadiene rubber production had previously been on an upward trajectory, accompanied by rising output of the raw material butadiene. Favorable profit margins encouraged producers to maintain relatively high operating rates. Coupled with the continued release of new domestic capacity, the overall market supply continued to increase. While some production units are scheduled for maintenance between late August and September, none have yet shut down; thus, there are no immediate signs of a supply contraction in the short term. Although social inventories underwent a period of destocking, the reduction was limited and insufficient to provide sustained, strong support for rubber prices.
The downstream tire industry remains in its traditional off-season, with tire output having declined slightly. Downstream manufacturers have shown no signs of concentrated restocking, and overall market demand remains weak, offering only limited support for spot price floors. As August progresses, production schedules for snow tires are gradually ramping up, and there are expectations of a recovery in the replacement market; however, the scale of this demand rebound is limited and unlikely to rapidly absorb the current increase in market supply. On the cost side, domestic butadiene supply is ample following the restart of production units, and expectations for increased arrivals of overseas cargo persist. The lack of a foundation for sustained strength in raw material prices has also capped the upside potential for butadiene rubber.
Looking at import and export trade data for the first half of 2026, the volume of domestic butadiene rubber imports fell significantly year-on-year. The import arbitrage window remained closed for an extended period, the effect of domestic substitution continued to manifest, and import dependency declined further. Consequently, the impact of overseas supplies on the domestic market has weakened, although fluctuations in the operation of units in key source regions continue to influence the pace of arrivals. In contrast, export performance has been impressive; total export volume saw significant growth in the first half of the year, with domestic products—leveraging price advantages—flowing into regions like Southeast Asia where tire manufacturing is concentrated. The domestic market has solidified a net-export trade pattern, and export orders have served as a crucial buffer against the pressure of the domestic off-season, providing a floor for spot prices. However, the growth of export orders has been steady rather than explosive, and the stimulus provided by exports is insufficient to reverse the overall loose supply-demand balance.
Overall, the rise in cis-polybutadiene rubber spot prices on August 4 was a passive reaction to broader market trends rather than being driven by improvements in internal supply and demand. With domestic supply continuing to increase, downstream demand recovering only sluggishly, and raw material cost support remaining weak, the net-export pattern established in the first half of the year has merely provided a price floor; it has failed to trigger a significant upward trend, and the market is likely to continue fluctuating within a weak range. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include the ripple effects of geopolitical events on related product categories, changes in import arrivals resulting from shifts in overseas plant operations, and the actual realization of export orders from Southeast Asia.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on August 5, the benchmark price for cis-polybutadiene rubber (as tracked by SunSirs) stood at 13,460.00 RMB/tonne, marking a 0.07% increase compared to the beginning of the month (13,450.00 RMB/tonne).
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