On 4 August, sentiment in the domestic stainless steel market showed signs of recovery. Driven by rising prices of upstream nickel-based raw materials, spot quotations followed suit and moved upwards in line with cost increases; however, actual buying interest from end-users remained relatively weak. Following the price rises, transaction volumes did not increase correspondingly, and the market exhibited the characteristic pattern of ‘cost-driven price increases coupled with cautious trading’. In the major distribution markets of Wuxi and Foshan, mainstream quotes for 304 private-sector 4-chi cold-rolled rough-edged coils rose, with market prices generally increasing by around RMB100 compared to the previous trading day. Hot-rolled large plates followed suit with price rises, whilst some steel mills maintained flat pricing for their shipments. whilst a few steel mills slightly raised their ex-works guidance prices. Steel mills demonstrated a strong willingness to support prices; however, traders faced increased difficulties in moving stock following the price surge, with transactions for high-priced materials encountering resistance. Actual transactions were largely concentrated on lower-priced stock, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment persisted in the market

On the raw materials front, prices for Indonesian nickel pig iron rose slightly. New regulations regarding export inspections in the region have caused some disruption to nickel exports, indirectly affecting domestic stainless steel production costs and providing underlying support for spot prices. However, domestic social inventories remain at relatively high levels, continuing to cap the upside potential for spot prices and limiting the sustainability of any significant spot price rallies. Overseas markets in the Asian region have seen price increases simultaneously; domestic stainless steel export quotations have risen by approximately US$30 per metric tonne compared with previous periods. There are signs of a temporary recovery in procurement demand from Southeast Asia; however, the pace of overall overseas demand recovery remains limited, and there has been no large-scale surge in external orders. The upward adjustment in export quotations is largely a passive response to rising raw material costs, rather than being driven by a significant improvement in end-user demand.

On 5 August, the SunSirs’ benchmark price for stainless steel stood at RMB14,800.00  per tonne, representing a decrease of 0.31 per cent compared with the start of the month (RMB14,846.67  per tonne).

According to customs data on imports and exports for the first half of the year, from January to June 2026, cumulative domestic stainless steel exports totalled 2.0558 million metric tonnes, down 17.77 per cent year-on-year; cumulative imports stood at 0.7524 million metric tonnes, down 9.07 per cent year-on-year; and net exports amounted to 1.3034 million metric tonnes, down 22.07 per cent year-on-year. Overall foreign trade exhibited a pattern of declines in both imports and exports. An increase in overseas trade barriers, the expansion of local production capacity abroad, and a slower-than-expected recovery in external demand collectively weighed on overall export performance in the first half of the year, with some shipments originally intended for export being redirected back to the domestic market, thereby further intensifying supply pressures in the domestic market. From a monthly perspective, exports showed a marked recovery in June alone, with monthly exports totalling 443,100 metric tonnes, representing a month-on-month increase of 6.26 per cent and a year-on-year rise of 13.63 per cent. imports stood at 120,200 metric tonnes, with growth recorded both month-on-month and year-on-year, whilst net exports for the month also rose. This reflects a surge in demand driven by temporary restocking in overseas markets; however, this single-month recovery was insufficient to reverse the overall downward trend in cumulative exports for the first half of the year. Competitive pressures in overseas markets remain a tangible reality, and the continued expansion of production capacity in Indonesia continues to divert global stainless steel trade flows, creating long-term competitive pressure on China’s exports. On the production front, domestic crude stainless steel output continued to grow in the first half of the year, with production from January to June totalling 21.079 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 7.19 per cent. Domestic supply remained at a high level, whilst apparent consumption grew in tandem; domestic demand became the main pillar for absorbing domestic output, with the share of exports declining somewhat, shifting the market’s focus more towards the pace of demand release from domestic end-user industries.

Looking ahead, the short-term stainless steel market will continue to be dominated by the interplay between nickel-based raw material costs and domestic end-user demand. Support from the raw materials side is providing a floor for prices; however, high domestic inventory levels and conservative procurement by downstream manufacturers will constrain upside potential, meaning prices are likely to remain range-bound. On the export front, it remains to be seen whether the positive performance observed in June can be sustained. Overseas trade policies and the expansion of local supply abroad remain the primary factors weighing on exports. It will be necessary to continuously monitor changes in orders from major export destinations such as Southeast Asia, whilst also keeping a close eye on production activity and inventory drawdown progress within the domestic downstream manufacturing sector. Should there be no substantial improvement in actual downstream consumption, the sustainability of any upward movement in spot prices will be significantly constrained, and the market will largely await further materialization of genuine demand.

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