On 4 August, alumina futures traded at high levels during the session; at the time of writing, the main contract was quoted at RMB2,644.0 per metric tonne, up slightly by 0.38 per cent.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to June 2026, cumulative domestic imports of alumina totalled 2.277 million metric tonnes, a substantial year-on-year increase of 749.1 per cent; cumulative exports of alumina stood at 1.609 million metric tonnes, up 19.8 per cent year-on-year; and cumulative net imports of alumina reached 668,000 metric tonnes, with the net import trend continuing to widen.

A domestic supply surplus has been established, with inventories continuing to accumulate at high levels. Total inventories have increased by over one million metric tonnes since the start of the year; primary aluminium smelters have ample raw material stockpiles; port inventories have been driven up by a concentration of import arrivals; and exchange warehouse receipts are significantly higher than the long-term average, limiting the scope for price support in the spot market. New production capacity in Guangxi continues to come online, whilst plants undergoing maintenance are gradually resuming operations; weekly output has increased month-on-month, and the trend of ample supply is unlikely to change in the short term. Overseas, the Atavira alumina plant in the United Arab Emirates resumed operations in July, with expectations of a recovery in future supply weighing on prices. The spot market remains weak but stable, with limited price fluctuations across regions; the import window remains closed, and current prices are fluctuating within a narrow range around the cost line. The cost floor is at odds with the reality of oversupply; domestically, excess supply and high inventory levels are limiting the scope for spot price support, whilst cost support restricts the extent of any downside. The reference trading range for the main contract is RMB2,650–2,800  per metric tonne.

China’s total bauxite supply is ample and its alumina production capacity is substantial; the long-term surplus in alumina supply is set to persist, whilst demand has also reached a ceiling. Bauxite supply from Guinea remains at high levels; the resumption of operations at Global Aluminium’s alumina refinery in the UAE, coupled with the concentrated commissioning of numerous new domestic production facilities, has led to a marginal strengthening of alumina supply in the short term. Bauxite export quotas from Guinea make prices more prone to rise than fall; cost support is marginally strengthening, and downside potential is limited. In the short term, alumina prices are likely to remain range-bound.

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