The domestic melamine market has recently shown strong performance, with price levels steadily trending upward. As of August 3, the benchmark price for melamine tracked by SunSirs stood at 6,212.50 RMB/ton, marking a 0.40% increase since the beginning of the month. Despite stable prices for the raw material urea, melamine has staged an independent rally driven by its own supply-demand dynamics, and technical indicators suggest that upward momentum is intensifying.

Spot market trends: Stepped upward movement, stabilizing at short-term highs.

Judging from recent price trends, the melamine market exhibits a distinct pattern of rising in a "two steps forward, one step back" or "stair-step" fashion:

Price Performance: At the beginning of the week (July 27), the price stood at 6,125.00 RMB/ton. After a period of minor fluctuation and consolidation, it broke through the 6,187.50 RMB/ton mark on July 31 and climbed further to a high of 6,212.50 RMB/ton in early August. Although the price remained unchanged on August 2, the overall upward trend in the price level remained intact.

Comparison of raw materials: The benchmark price for upstream urea stands at 1,757.50 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged from the beginning of the month. The rise in melamine prices is not driven by costs; rather, it stems primarily from tightened supply or improved demand within the industry, leading to a recovery in profit margins.

Supply-Demand Dynamics and Market Outlook

The core dynamic currently driving the melamine market is that "tight supply is supporting price increases":

Supply side: Maintenance work or reduced operating rates at certain facilities have curtailed the volume of material circulating in the market. Manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain high price levels, and inventory pressure remains low; these factors serve as the primary drivers of the price rally.

Demand side: Downstream sectors—specifically the board and compound fertilizer industries—have shown a reasonable level of acceptance regarding high-priced raw materials. Steady procurement driven by essential needs, combined with the supply-side contraction, has pushed market prices upward.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the melamine market is expected to maintain a trend of strong volatility with an upward bias. It is advisable to closely monitor changes in manufacturers' operating rates and the pace of downstream procurement; should signs emerge of rising volume accompanied by stalled price growth, one should be alert to the risk of a pullback.

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