US and Iran released easing signal

On July 24, Trump formally ordered the U.S. military to halt daily airstrikes against targets within Iran and those held by its overseas proxies, bringing an end to 13 consecutive days of bombing that began with the latest round of conflict on July 7; the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations stated that the suspension was intended to create space for diplomatic negotiations.

Iran reciprocated with a simultaneous truce. Iranian authorities announced that, following two consecutive nights without U.S. strikes, Iran would immediately cease retaliatory attacks on U.S. military bases and naval vessels. The U.S. and Iran have entered a window of interim ceasefire, halting the tit-for-tat retaliation and cross-border airstrikes that had persisted for over ten days; however, this de-escalation represents a brief tactical pause rather than a permanent reconciliation, and the overall situation remains fragile.

Isooctanol prices have stopped rising and stabilized

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of isooctanol stood at 8,066.67 RMB/ton on July 28, marking a significant increase of 19.80% from the 6,733.33 RMB/ton recorded on July 7. Prices had surged following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East; however, as the US and Iran signaled a potential easing of tensions, the price of isooctanol stabilized on July 28 after its earlier rise.

Phthalic anhydride prices stabilized after rising

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the quoted price for ortho-xylene-based phthalic anhydride stood at 9,283.33 RMB/ton as of July 28. This represents a significant increase of 20.04% from the price of 7,733.33 RMB/ton recorded on July 6. Prices surged early in the month amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East; however, with recent signals of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the upward momentum has slowed since July 24, and prices have stabilized.

Surge in DOP plasticizer prices slowed down

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of DOP stood at 8,867.50 RMB/ton as of July 28, marking a fluctuating rise of 10.72% from the 8,009.16 RMB/ton recorded on July 7. While the price of isooctanol surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the upward momentum of DOP prices has recently slowed following signals of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Risk: This ceasefire is extremely fragile, and the risk of renewed conflict is high.

There is no formal, written agreement for a permanent ceasefire in this instance; the truce consists merely of a simultaneous, verbal suspension of hostilities. As the top leaders of both nations signed no official documents, the arrangement lacks binding force. Furthermore, the memorandum from last June was already rendered void by the recent outbreak of conflict, and there are no institutional safeguards in place. Fundamental disagreements remain entirely unresolved—with deep-seated conflicts persisting over Iran’s nuclear program, comprehensive U.S. sanctions, spheres of influence in the Middle East, and Israel’s security concerns. Additionally, Israel continues to pressure the U.S. against making concessions to Iran, a stance highly likely to stall the negotiation process. Given the history of intermittent conflict—where brief periods of de-escalation frequently gave way to renewed hostilities sparked by maritime friction or proxy clashes—the prevailing view among experts is that this window of calm is unlikely to be sustained for long.

Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that recent signals of de-escalation between the US and Iran have caused a sharp drop in crude oil prices. This has trickled down to the downstream sector, slowing the price increases for phthalic anhydride and isooctanol and stabilizing plasticizer prices; consequently, there is mounting downward pressure on prices across the plasticizer industry chain. However, given the extreme fragility of the current ceasefire and the high risk of renewed conflict, the potential for further price declines is limited. Prices for products in the plasticizer industry chain are expected to undergo a period of consolidation at high levels, characterized by underlying weakness.

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