As the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East rapidly dissipated, international oil prices fell sharply; Brent crude retreated from above $95/barrel to around $85/barrel, with a single-day drop exceeding 7%. This triggered a broad decline across the domestic energy and chemical industry chain, with both futures and spot prices for synthetic rubber trending downward. Data from SunSirs shows that as of July 28, the price of BR in East China stood at 13,540 RMB/tonne, down 3.70% from 14,060 RMB/tonne the previous Friday.

In the futures market, the main BR contract (BR2609) plunged 6.22% on the 28th, closing at 12,120 RMB/tonne—a cumulative weekly decline of nearly 900 RMB. In the spot market, ex-factory prices were lowered by 400 RMB/tonne to 13,200 RMB/tonne; traders actively offered price concessions to move inventory, causing spot prices to fall in tandem.

Pressure from supply-demand fundamentals has intensified. Operating rates for domestic synthetic rubber plants remain above 66%, ensuring ample market supply. Meanwhile, the downstream tire industry is in a traditional off-season with low operating rates; as of July 24, the operating load for semi-steel tires at domestic tire enterprises was 65%, and the load for all-steel tires at Shandong tire enterprises was also 65%. Finished product inventory levels stood at 40.3 days for all-steel tires and 45.6 days for semi-steel tires

Market Outlook: In the short term, market trends remain closely tied to crude oil fluctuations. If international oil prices continue to weaken, cost support from raw materials will erode, and BR prices will likely remain under pressure. Conversely, should crude oil prices stabilize and rebound—accompanied by a significant recovery in downstream tire production—BR prices are expected to rise again.

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