I. Market Review and Outlook

Market Performance: Prices for the main polysilicon futures contract fluctuated at high levels. The PS2609 contract closed at 33,640 RMB/ton, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 52,400 lots and open interest of 116,671 lots (a net decrease of 802 lots).

Spot Prices: Today, the transaction price range for N-type polysilicon (recharge material) was 31,000–33,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 32,000 RMB/ton. The transaction price range for N-type granular silicon was 29,000–31,000 RMB/ton, with an average price of 30,000 RMB/ton.

Market Outlook (For Reference Only): Polysilicon futures prices rebounded slightly today, though trading volume continued to shrink. This indicates that expectations regarding previous production-cut policies have largely been priced in, and the market has returned to pricing based on fundamentals. On the supply side, polysilicon production continued to rise in July, approaching 100,000 tonnes. Facilities in Sichuan, Yunnan, and other regions are ramping up production, and additional capacity is expected to come online in August. Industry inventory is projected to remain high—exceeding 310,000 tonnes—maintaining pressure on the supply side.

Market divergence regarding the impact of the new national energy consumption standards has widened. Most institutions believe the policy primarily affects capacity that has already ceased production, with limited impact on active, effective capacity; furthermore, as implementation is not scheduled until 2027, it is unlikely to trigger a substantial supply contraction in the short term.

On the demand side, wafer manufacturers have begun releasing their August production schedules. Overall production plans show a slight month-on-month increase, though the growth rate falls short of market expectations. Companies hold ample raw material inventories and continue to pursue "on-demand" purchasing strategies, with no signs of concentrated restocking. Overall, the polysilicon market remains in a bottoming-out phase; while cost support exists around the 33,000 RMB/ton level, high inventory and weak demand have prevented any rebound from being sustained. Without clear policy tailwinds or a significant improvement in demand, futures prices are unlikely to embark on a sustained upward trend; instead, they are expected to fluctuate within the 33,000–34,500 RMB/ton range in the short term while awaiting new catalysts. Key factors to monitor going forward include actual August production schedules for wafer manufacturers, module export data, maintenance plans for polysilicon producers, and the implementation progress of energy consumption policies.

Risk factors: Actual August production exceeding expectations; slower-than-expected implementation of capacity control policies.

II. Industry News

Downstream: The average price for monocrystalline 183mm N-type wafers stands at 0.815 RMB/piece, unchanged from the previous trading day. The wafer pricing structure is chaotic, and the market lacks a clear direction. Constrained by high raw material costs and pressure to reduce finished-product inventories, downstream players are further slowing the pace of essential raw material procurement, with purchasing sentiment remaining conservative.

Upstream: The market for photovoltaic-grade trichlorosilane is operating steadily, with an average price of approximately 4,100 RMB/ton—unchanged from the previous trading day. Current trading volume is moderate, with steady downstream intake; producers are primarily focused on actively moving inventory. The average price for industrial silicon is 9,093 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to the last reporting date. In the short term, market prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, lacking sufficient drivers for a rebound.  (Source: Sina Finance).

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