While daily coal consumption at power plants remains at a seasonally high level, purchasing interest in spot-market coal stays low due to ample inventories in the mid- and downstream sectors, alongside stable supplies from imports and long-term contracts. Sellers, despite facing difficulties in moving cargo, largely maintain a firm stance on pricing, driven by expectations of peak-season demand and high shipping costs.

The area affected by high temperatures in the south has expanded, leading to a rapid rise in daily consumption at thermal power plants and a moderate increase in restocking demand in regions where downstream activity is recovering quickly. Additionally, accelerated cargo clearance at some ports has caused the number of vessels anchored off Bohai Rim ports to rise to 40—an increase of 25 from the previous week. This week, the port coal market maintained its upward momentum with firm prices, though the rally lacked strong follow-through; this stability was underpinned by three key factors. First, strict safety regulations in major production areas—coupled with the slower-than-expected resumption of operations at Shanxi coal mines—kept origin prices high, thereby driving up the overall shipping costs for spot-market coal. Second, rising overseas demand kept international coal prices high; furthermore, the cost inversion for shipping imported coal to China caused import quotes to rebound, narrowing their price advantage over domestic coal. Third, the expanding reach of high-temperature weather led to a steady recovery in daily consumption at coastal power plants, boosting purchasing interest and vessel dispatch—and accelerating inventory replenishment—among users in East China and regions along the Yangtze River accessible by sea.

Following the passage and dissipation of typhoons, the strengthening of the subtropical high-pressure system led to a marked rise in temperatures nationwide and a rapid increase in residential cooling loads. Power grids in regions such as Jiangsu broke load records for the year, and coastal power plants saw a substantial rise in daily consumption, accelerating the depletion of on-site stockpiles. However, overall coal inventories remain high due to involuntary stockpiling during the earlier "Meiyu" (plum rain) season. Additionally, a significant number of vessels carrying imported coal are awaiting unloading in South China, and inventories at discharge ports like Guangzhou remain elevated; consequently, end-user procurement strategies focus on consuming existing high stocks and maximizing long-term contract fulfillment, resulting in limited growth in demand for spot-market coal. Currently, temperatures across most of my country are higher than the historical average for this time of year; with heatwaves sweeping through many southern regions, there is room for further increases in daily coal consumption at coastal power plants. If the pace of inventory depletion accelerates, downstream procurement demand may improve accordingly; once power plant inventories are effectively drawn down, a window for demand release is expected to open in August.

This week, downstream power plants—possessing ample inventories and receiving steady supplies under long-term contracts—have shown low acceptance of high-priced spot market coal, resulting in few actual transactions. Notably, high inventory levels at South China ports remain a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over end-users. The thermal coal market at Bohai Rim ports is currently in a phase of "inventory depletion following a rapid price surge." While bullish sentiment has cooled and price indices have flattened since Wednesday, three key factors—cost support (due to price inversion at shipping ports), tight supply (driven by stricter safety inspections and scarce coal sources in Shanxi), and high summer consumption (coastal power plant intake has risen to 2.31 million toes)—ensure that coal prices will not see a significant correction. (Source: Ordos Coal Network)

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