Price trends

According to data monitored by SunSirs, as of July 24, the average domestic price for premium-grade industrial cyclohexane stood at 6,196 RMB/ton. The market overall exhibited a pattern of stable yet slightly weak fluctuation; mainstream ex-factory quotes in the Shandong region ranged from 5,956 to 6,600 RMB/ton, while prices in the high-end East China market saw a slight downward adjustment to catch up with the broader trend. Trading activity was dominated by small orders driven by immediate needs, with a scarcity of large-volume transactions.

Market Analysis

Regarding market analysis: The market is currently in a seasonal off-peak period, with a pronounced imbalance between supply and demand. On the supply side, spot market liquidity is ample, and inventories held by traders and enterprises are at moderately high levels, leading to price concessions driven by the pressure to move stock. On the demand side, purchasing momentum is weak; downstream buyers show only lukewarm acceptance of current price levels and are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach. Consequently, transaction prices are trending toward the lower end of the range, and regional price disparities have widened (hovering around 6,700 RMB/ton in Shandong and 7,800 RMB/ton in East China).

Regarding costs: Upstream benzene prices have recently been consolidating with a weak bias or fluctuating at high levels; cost support has either softened somewhat compared to earlier periods or remains merely essential. Fluctuations in raw material prices are directly transmitted to the cyclohexane production stage, squeezing manufacturers' profit margins and undermining their confidence in maintaining price levels. In terms of the link to crude oil: fluctuations in international crude oil prices impact benzene and hydrogenation costs through the petrochemical supply chain. Currently, there is no clear driver for a significant, one-sided surge or collapse in costs; while this provides a floor for cyclohexane prices, it lacks the momentum to drive a strong upward rally.

Downstream Demand: Regarding core downstream sectors—operating rates for caprolactam, adipic acid, and cyclohexanone units remain around 70%-75%; however, the end-use nylon, chemical fiber, and textile industries are in a traditional off-season. With insufficient orders, purchasing is limited to maintaining steady, essential inventory, and there is no release of incremental demand. In the solvent and other sectors—including coatings, pharmaceutical intermediates, and general solvents—operating rates are low due to environmental regulations and the off-season. Purchasing interest is sluggish as buyers increasingly shift to substitutes or delay procurement, making it difficult to generate effective demand support.

Operating Rates: For cyclohexane units, the average domestic operating rate remained between 62% and 66% (with major producers reaching 75%-80% capacity utilization during certain periods). Key units—such as those operated by Luxi and Hualu Hengsheng—maintained stable operations; the resumption of production following earlier maintenance led to an increase in available market supply, keeping the supply side consistently loose. Regarding industry chain integration, integrated units linked to caprolactam maintained stable operating loads, while a significant volume of merchant cyclohexane entered the market, exacerbating the accumulation of commercial inventories.

Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that the cyclohexane market lacks the momentum for a significant rise in the short term; instead, it is likely to experience narrow, weak fluctuations or consolidate sideways. Bearish factors include the ongoing off-season for demand, high inventory levels awaiting digestion, and limited cost support—given that benzene lacks a strong rebound. Regarding the trading range, mainstream prices are expected to fluctuate between 6,000 and 6,900 RMB/ton (with a reference price of around 6,600 RMB/ton in Shandong), while high prices in East China may face some downward adjustment pressure.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.