Price trends

According to SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic PTA market has exhibited a fluctuating upward trend since the beginning of July; the average spot market price in East China stands at 6,036 RMB/ton, marking a 6.15% increase compared to July 2.

Market analysis

Ongoing mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran have heightened dual risks for global energy transit routes, driving international crude oil prices up once again. As of July 20, the settlement price for the September contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $82.48 per barrel, while the September contract for Brent crude settled at $89.22 per barrel—marking new highs since mid-June. Meanwhile, cost support remains robust as Asian paraxylene (PX) operating rates have dropped to yearly lows due to concentrated annual maintenance at production facilities. Additionally, maintenance at several major purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants has pushed industry operating rates as low as 57%; tight supplies and ongoing inventory depletion have further fueled the upward trend in prices.

On the demand side, boosted by rising oil prices, the production and sales of polyester filament yarn have seen a temporary surge; downstream inventory levels for polyester products have declined, and procurement of PTA remains driven by essential needs. July falls within the traditional off-season for the textile industry, with high summer temperatures and frequent extreme weather keeping operating rates low. As orders for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season typically begin to arrive in volume from mid-August, there is no urgent need for restocking in July. Terminal orders show mixed trends: orders for knitted goods have risen slightly, while demand for woven fabrics remains sluggish.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, market participants are monitoring the evolving situation regarding the US-Iran conflict; meanwhile, the slow completion of maintenance at paraxylene (PX) plants keeps supply tight, providing continued cost-side support. As the textile market enters the stocking period for autumn/winter orders, downstream polyester operating rates are expected to rise slightly alongside increased restocking driven by essential demand, offering a temporary boost to prices. However, with PTA plants restarting throughout August, supply will loosen at the margin; the concentrated release of additional supply may put downward pressure on prices. In the short term, the PTA market is expected to maintain a trend of fluctuating upward movement.

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