I. Overview of Spot Prices and Regional Price Differentials on July 21

On July 21, the benchmark price for domestic industrial-grade cyclohexane reached 7,000 RMB/ton, marking a single-day increase of 4.48%, a cumulative rise of 9.38% over the past week, and an 11.11% gain over the last thirty days; the price has firmly established itself above the 7,000-yuan mark as bullish market sentiment surged. A clear divergence exists between prices in producing regions and consuming regions: East China, a key consumption and distribution hub, saw mainstream delivered quotes of 7,100–7,300 RMB/ton, while the major producing region of Shandong reported ex-factory prices of RMB 6,700–6,900, with regional logistics costs driving a stable price spread. Supplies from inland Shanxi and Hebei were quoted lower, yet localized plant shutdowns tightened spot circulation, making low-priced stock scarce. Meanwhile, prices for high-purity electronic-grade cyclohexane in South China moved independently, averaging RMB 8,300–8,600; the spread between this and standard industrial-grade material continued to widen, as demand for this high-end niche product remained decoupled from fluctuations in the nylon industry chain.

Regarding inventory, commercial cyclohexane stocks at ports along the Yangtze River in East China remained low; the ongoing destocking of raw material pure benzene has impacted downstream cyclohexane storage, limiting trader holdings and preventing low-price dumping. Although finished product inventories at northern plants saw a slight buildup, downstream caprolactam factories engaged in concentrated restocking, accelerating outflow rates and ensuring the industry faced no significant pressure from inventory accumulation. II. Three Core Drivers of the Current Price Rally

1. Rigid Cost Floor Established by Upstream Pure Benzene

Cyclohexane is produced via the hydrogenation of pure benzene, with the latter accounting for over 70% of production costs. Recent fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided a cost floor for chemical products. Since mid-July, spot prices for pure benzene have strengthened consistently; on July 20, market transactions peaked at the 8,000 RMB/ton level. As raw material costs rose, all cyclohexane producers simultaneously raised their ex-factory quotes, directly passing the increased costs down to finished products. The average price of pure benzene in the first half of the year rose by over 10% year-on-year, establishing a sustained upward cost trend for the year; this fundamentally compressed processing margins, creating a strong incentive for factories to adjust prices.

2. Continued Recovery in Downstream Nylon Industry Demand

Caprolactam is the primary consumer of cyclohexane and serves as the feedstock for PA6 nylon. On July 21, PA6 spot prices surged 4.4% in a single day, rising from RMB 12,133.33 to 12,666.67, driven by growing expectations of inventory restocking in the downstream textile and automotive lightweighting sectors. Traditional autumn/winter textile orders have commenced early, and processors of modified plastics and automotive interior/exterior components have begun proactive purchasing. Consequently, operating rates for caprolactam plants have steadily increased, driving a month-on-month rise in essential cyclohexane procurement. This synchronized strengthening across the downstream supply chain has generated bottom-up demand momentum.

3. Periodic Supply Contraction in Domestic and Asia-Pacific Markets

Several domestic cyclohexane plants have entered scheduled maintenance cycles; notably, a 20,000-tonne/year integrated unit in Shanxi was shut down on July 20 with no confirmed restart date, leading to a contraction in monthly domestic market circulation. Simultaneously, multiple benzene hydrogenation units across the Asia-Pacific region are undergoing maintenance, reducing the total volume of circulating supply in the region. With limited supplementary imports from overseas, low supplier inventories, and a strong determination among sellers to maintain high prices, the tight supply of spot goods has further amplified the potential for price increases. The industry's average operating rate for the first half of the year was only 59.6%—reflecting prolonged low-load operations—meaning there is no supply-side pressure from overcapacity. III. Overall Customs Import and Export Landscape for Cyclohexane (First Half of 2026)

Monthly customs data for the first half of the year reveals that domestic cyclohexane trade is characterized by extremely low import volumes and a reliance on exports as the primary distribution channel. Cumulative imports for January–February totaled only 0.12 tons—a sharp year-on-year decline of 90.38%—while imports in May alone amounted to just 0.383 tons. The FOB price of overseas industrial-grade cyclohexane consistently exceeded that of domestic supplies, keeping the import arbitrage window closed; only small quantities of high-purity electronic-grade products were imported to bridge the gap in domestic high-end production capacity.

On the export side, stable sales channels were established; cumulative exports reached 3,909.2 tons in January–February, with May exports totaling 585.8 tons (a slight year-on-year increase of 1.35%). Export destinations were concentrated in Southeast Asian regions with significant nylon industries—such as South Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam—where the expansion of caprolactam and downstream plastics capacities drove steady growth in demand for Chinese cyclohexane, making exports a vital outlet for domestic supply. The overall trade structure indicates complete self-sufficiency in standard industrial-grade cyclohexane, with reliance on limited overseas supplies restricted to high-end electronic-grade products.

IV. Price Linkage Trends Across the Upstream and Downstream Supply Chain

Upstream Raw Material: Pure Benzene

On July 21, the average market price for pure benzene stood at 7,575 yuan/tonne, marking a slight pullback from the peak on July 20; however, a sustained rally in mid-July established a solid cost floor. Throughout the first half of the year, fluctuations in crude oil and naphtha prices drove an upward trend in pure benzene prices, laying the groundwork for a rise in the baseline price of cyclohexane. Sulfur prices also remained high, indirectly increasing the production costs for caprolactam and subsequently influencing demand for cyclohexane.

Midstream Intermediate: Caprolactam

Prices strengthened in tandem with rising cyclohexane costs. In late July, manufacturers continued to raise quotes for long-term contracts, and downstream polymerization plants increased their restocking volumes. Having operated on thin margins for an extended period due to cost pressures from both pure benzene and sulfur, the industry saw a recovery in product pricing driven by this latest round of raw material cost increases. Downstream End-Use: PA6 Nylon

On July 21, the price rose by 4.4% in a single day, breaking out of the low-level oscillation range seen over the previous three months. Market sentiment was bolstered by expectations for automotive lightweighting and autumn/winter textile orders. Modified plastic and film processing enterprises engaged in concentrated restocking at lower price points; this demand recovery drove upstream cyclohexane procurement, creating a positive price cycle across the entire industry chain. Within the high-end electronic-grade cyclohexane segment, demand from the semiconductor and precision cleaning sectors strengthened independently—unaffected by the traditional peak and off-seasons of the nylon industry—and prices demonstrated long-term resilience against declines.

V. Analysis of Domestic and Overseas Supply-Demand Patterns

Domestic Market Supply and Demand Characteristics

Supply Side: Total domestic capacity is approximately 2.6 million tons, yet the average annual operating rate remains below 60%. Many units are integrated with refinery by-product streams, allowing for significant flexibility in production adjustments. Maintenance cycles are concentrated in July and August, leading to periodic tightening of supply. The industry exhibits a structural imbalance: overcapacity in standard industrial-grade material alongside a shortage of high-purity electronic-grade products.

Demand Side: Demand falls into two main categories. Nylon chemicals represent the traditional primary demand source, subject to seasonal fluctuations in the textile and automotive industries. Conversely, demand for electronic-grade cyclohexane used in semiconductor and photovoltaic cleaning shows steady long-term growth; unaffected by seasonal cycles, it provides a foundation of consistent, inelastic demand throughout the year. July marks the pre-stocking window for the nylon industry, resulting in a concentrated release of short-term essential demand.

Overseas Market Supply and Demand Patterns

Global cyclohexane consumption is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. In Europe and the US, the local nylon industry has contracted, and high energy costs for chemical plants have led to an overall reduction in supply. Meanwhile, new nylon and plastic production capacities in Southeast Asia continue to come online, increasing reliance on Chinese industrial-grade cyclohexane imports year by year and providing a long-term buffer for demand. Prices for benzene feedstock in the Middle East and North America are more volatile, and overseas FOB prices for cyclohexane exceed domestic levels; consequently, there is little risk of low-priced imports disrupting the Chinese market, giving domestically produced material a stable price advantage.

VI. Short-Term Market Outlook and Key Variables to Watch

In the short term, three major bullish factors—cost support from benzene, downstream nylon restocking, and plant maintenance—continue to exert influence. Spot cyclohexane prices are likely to maintain a strong, high-level oscillation, with a projected price range of 7,000–7,400 RMB/ton. Upside constraints: There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of downstream PA6 procurement; if orders from the textile and automotive sectors fall short of expectations, a slowdown in the pace of downstream restocking will limit the potential for cyclohexane price increases. Additionally, if multiple production units currently undergoing maintenance restart simultaneously, the resulting rise in available market supply would dampen upward price momentum.

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