Price trends

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the xylene market saw a slight rise last week; the benchmark price was 5,884.33 RMB/ton on July 10 and rose to 6,266.67 RMB/ton by July 17, marking an increase of 6.5% over the period.

Market analysis

Last week, the domestic xylene market exhibited a pattern of steady, modest gains and consolidation at high levels, with a generally mild bullish sentiment. Supported by both rising crude oil costs and low inventory levels, the market saw a continued upward shift in price levels, maintaining a trend of steady appreciation.

Cost Side: Crude Oil Shows Volatility with an Upward Bias; Overall Price Levels Rse

During this period, international crude oil prices exhibited volatility with an upward bias, steadily shifting to higher levels and providing sustained cost support for the aromatics industry chain. Upstream naphtha prices strengthened in tandem with crude oil, driving up the production and processing costs for xylene. Meanwhile, domestic aromatics futures—including night trading sessions—showed strong volatility; while there were no extreme one-sided market movements, the overall industry sentiment was positive, with a widespread tendency among market participants to hold firm on prices. This sustained release of bullish cost-side factors was the core driver behind the steady rise in xylene prices this week, effectively solidifying the price floor and supporting the market's continued strength. As of July 16, the settlement price for the August contract of US WTI crude oil futures stood at $78.28 per barrel, while the settlement price for the September contract of Brent crude oil futures was $84.23 per barrel.

Supply Side:

Last week, the domestic xylene market was characterized by constrained operating rates, low inventory levels, and tight supplies. Strong support from the spot market provided the fundamental basis for the steady rise in xylene prices this week. On the production side, refineries across various regions have yet to fully restore units to full-load operation following earlier maintenance; combined with short-term load adjustments at some facilities, the industry's overall operating rate remained low, resulting in insufficient growth in local supply. Imports were limited and external supply replenishment was weak; port inventories continued to decline and remained low, tightening the volume of effectively circulating stock. Meanwhile, spot resources were scarce in key consumption and trading regions such as Shandong and East China, and traders faced minimal inventory pressure. Against this backdrop of tight supply, refineries and traders showed a strong inclination to hold firm on prices and limit sales, resulting in generally robust price quotes.

Demand Side:

Overall demand is characterized by stable essential consumption but caution regarding chasing higher prices, preventing a sustained, significant market rally. Key downstream sectors for xylene—such as coatings, solvents, and resins—maintain steady procurement to meet basic needs, underpinning market turnover and supporting a gradual rise in prices. However, as prices continued to climb this week, rising raw material costs have dampened downstream enterprises' willingness to stockpile or engage in bulk replenishment; most are now adopting a strategy of purchasing strictly on an as-needed basis and placing smaller orders, leading to a more conservative buying sentiment. Furthermore, marginal demand from sectors like fuel blending and fine chemicals remains flat, with no significant growth drivers emerging; overall market trading activity is moderate, limiting the scope for further price increases in xylene.

Market outlook

In the short term, the domestic xylene market is likely to maintain a trend of fluctuating within a high range, characterized by stability alongside minor adjustments. On the positive side, cost support from international crude oil persists, and market fundamentals—marked by low inventories and tight supply—remain unchanged; this provides a solid floor for prices, making a sharp decline unlikely. On the negative side, following the cumulative price gains of the current cycle, there is currently no new, substantial bullish stimulus; issues such as downstream reluctance to chase higher prices and sluggish trading activity have become apparent, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. Overall, the xylene market is unlikely to sustain a unidirectional upward trend; instead, it is expected to consolidate at high levels with limited price volatility. Moving forward, key factors to monitor include international crude oil price trends, refinery operating rates and inventory changes, and the pace of essential procurement by downstream end-users.

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