This week (July 13-17), the polyester filament market was characterized by cost-driven gains followed by a pullback due to demand-side pressure, resulting in a range-bound trading pattern. Early in the week, rising crude oil and PTA prices prompted manufacturers to tentatively raise quotes; however, downstream willingness to chase higher prices was weak—typical of the traditional textile off-season—and sales-to-production ratios remained sluggish. Trading activity cooled rapidly after the mid-week rise, and the upward momentum in spot prices proved unsustainable. With cost support in place but demand under pressure, the market continued to fluctuate within a range, failing to establish a clear, one-way trend.
Review of Spot Price Trends This Week (Mainstream Specifications in Jiangsu and Zhejiang)
Mainstream Transaction Price Ranges (Ex-factory, Tax-inclusive)
POY 150D/48F
Early week: 8,050-8,100 RMB/ton; mid-week spike to 8,180-8,250 RMB/ton; retreated to 8,100-8,180 RMB/ton by week's end, with increased price concessions during negotiations.
FDY 150D/96F
Early week: 8,250-8,320 RMB/ton; weekly high of 8,380-8,450 RMB/ton; retreated to 8,300-8,380 RMB/ton by weekend.
DTY 150D (Low-elasticity)
Early week: 9,150-9,230 RMB/ton; rose to 9,300-9,380 RMB/ton; week's end: 9,220-9,300 RMB/ton; DTY prices showed relative resilience against declines, though trading volume remained insufficient.
Summary of Market Dynamics
July 13-15 (First half of the week): International crude oil prices fluctuated with an upward bias; PTA prices rose, supported by plant maintenance, driving up polyester production costs. Some major manufacturers raised filament quotes, fueling bullish market sentiment and prompting a small number of traders to restock at lower price points.
July 16-17 (Second half of the week): The geopolitical premium on crude oil receded, and PTA futures weakened, loosening cost support. Downstream weavers resisted high prices, causing sales volumes to plummet; factories faced mounting inventory pressure, leading to a halt in price hikes and wider room for negotiation on actual orders.
Production and Sales Characteristics: A brief uptick in sales occurred only at the onset of price hikes; for the most part, daily sales-to-production ratios at filament plants hovered between 50% and 70%, struggling to consistently exceed 100%—a classic scenario of "price hikes without transaction volume."
Key driving factors
1. Cost Side: Initially strong but subsequently weakening; provided a floor for prices but lacked the momentum to drive sustained gains.
Bullish factors: Concentrated maintenance of PTA plants in July kept industry operating rates low, providing short-term support for PTA spot prices; MEG prices fluctuated within a range, offering some support to polymerization costs and limiting the downside for filament prices.
Bearish factors: Crude oil prices retreated during the latter half of the week, causing PTA futures to pull back and dampening the upward momentum of raw material prices; the raw material market shifted from active price-driven gains to passive fluctuation.
Margins: Processing margins for filament remained reasonable; producers currently show no inclination for large-scale, coordinated shutdowns, meaning there is no clear rationale for a significant contraction in supply.
2. Supply Side: Stable Operating Rates and Gradual Inventory Accumulation
Overall operating rates for polyester filament remain steady at 73%-75%, with units that underwent periodic maintenance earlier gradually resuming production.
Latest sample inventory levels:
POY: approx. 17-19 days; FDY: 22-24 days; DTY: 32-35 days.
DTY faces the greatest inventory pressure. Downstream sectors continue to operate at low capacity during the off-season, hindering filament destocking and leading to a gradual buildup of inventory; this curbs the incentive for factories to maintain firm pricing.
3. Demand Side: Traditional Off-Season for Textiles—The Core Issue
Operating rates for weaving enterprises in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region remain consistently low, generally ranging from 53% to 58%; many small and medium-sized mills have scheduled production cuts or rotating shifts due to high temperatures, while operating rates for dyeing and printing plants stand at only 45%-52%.
Orders from end-markets are scarce, with most orders for greige fabric covering less than 10 days of production; weaving mills are adhering to a "just-in-time" procurement and zero-inventory strategy, halting restocking immediately upon any price increase and avoiding bulk stockpiling.
Export markets have entered their off-season, resulting in limited growth in export orders—insufficient to absorb the domestic surplus of filament yarn.
Textured yarn (DTY) plants are exercising caution in managing raw material inventories, and the transmission of demand for DTY remains weak.
In short: while costs provide support, demand cannot absorb the price increases—this is the fundamental reason for this week's pattern of an initial rise followed by a pullback.
4. Market Sentiment
Sentiment leaned bullish early in the week, driven by a rebound following overselling and rising raw material costs; however, as prices rose, downstream buyers increasingly adopted a wait-and-see approach, and speculative buying quickly exited the market. Market divergence intensified, with activity dominated by short-term trading and little appetite for medium- to long-term stockpiling.
Market Outlook:
Price Range Forecast
POY: Main trading range of 8,050-8,220 RMB/ton; resistance at the 8,220 level, support at 8,050 RMB/ton.
FDY range: 8,250-8,420 RMB/ton.
DTY range: 9,180-9,350 RMB/ton.
Overall, the market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation range, with a higher probability of a weak, oscillating trend; unless crude oil and PTA prices strengthen significantly again, it will be difficult for filament prices to effectively break through the upper resistance levels.
SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.
