Corn: China's forecast for the corn supply and demand situation for the 2026/27 marketing year this month remains consistent with the previous month. Recently, most of the major corn-producing regions in Northeast China have normal temperatures and suitable soil moisture, and the major producing regions in North China have good light and heat conditions, all of which are conducive to the growth and development of corn. In the future, most of the major corn-producing regions will experience frequent showers, which are beneficial to replenishing agricultural production water, but there is a high risk of waterlogging in low-lying farmland, which requires continuous attention. In the domestic market, policy-based grain sales continue, the feed substitution of domestic wheat, imported sorghum and barley increases, and corn deep-processing enterprises enter the shutdown and maintenance period with weak raw material procurement demand, leading to stable and weak prices. In the international market, there is continued speculation about the weather in the northern hemisphere's producing regions, with concerns that the yield per unit area in the United States and Europe will fall short of expectations. However, the sharp drop in the international crude oil market has driven international corn prices to fluctuate at a low level.

Soybeans: China's soybean supply and demand situation forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year remains unchanged this month compared with the previous month. Domestically, soybean planting in the Huang-Huai-Hai region has been successfully concluded, with overall weather conditions conducive to seedling emergence, and seedling conditions in the Northeast China region are normal. The operating rate of soybean crushing enterprises remains at a high level, food consumption is in a seasonal off-season, the overall supply and demand are loose, and prices are basically stable. Internationally, soybean planting in the United States has been completed, with the actual planting area higher than previously expected, output is expected to increase, the global market supply and demand relationship is becoming looser, and subsequent prices will fluctuate with changes in weather in the main producing areas of North America.

Cotton: Cotton has a prominent cost-performance advantage in the international market. Coupled with the gradual implementation of the previously increased cotton import sliding tariff processing trade quotas, cotton imports have exceeded expectations. This month, the estimated cotton import volume for the 2025/26 marketing year is raised by 100,000 tons from the previous month to 1.5 million tons, and the ending inventory is adjusted to 8.19 million tons. The forecast for China's cotton supply and demand situation in the 2026/27 marketing year remains unchanged from last month. At present, cotton across the country is in the flowering and boll-setting growth stage. The light and heat conditions in the Yellow River Basin cotton-growing areas are good. However, affected by the continuous high-temperature weather and relatively tight local water supply in the Xinjiang cotton-growing areas, some plots with obvious drought conditions have shown flower and boll abscission. The impact on cotton yield needs further tracking and evaluation. The China Meteorological Administration predicts that the temperature in most cotton-growing areas across the country will be higher in the future, and there is a high risk of periodic high-temperature heat damage. Downstream terminal demand is weak, textile enterprises have a weak willingness to restock, and raw materials are mostly purchased on demand.

Edible Vegetable Oil: The forecast for China's edible vegetable oil supply and demand situation in the 2026/2027 marketing year released this month remains consistent with that of the previous month. The new rapeseed purchasing peak season has basically ended, with overall stable purchase and sale transactions, prices at the same level as in previous years, and a prominent characteristic of premium pricing for high-quality products. The peanut-producing areas in the Huang-Huai River Basin have entered the critical growth period of flowering, pegging and pod formation. Precipitation is close to or above normal levels, so it is necessary to do a good job in farmland waterlogging drainage and prevent the impact of adverse weather on peanut yield. In the international market, the sowing of new rapeseed in Canada has been completed, with the planting area hitting a 10-year high. Global supply expectations have tightened again, putting downward pressure on rapeseed prices.

Sugar: This month, the output data for sugar in the 2025/26 marketing year was revised, with output increased by 150,000 tons to 12.95 million tons, and the estimated range of domestic sugar prices was lowered to 5,300-5,600 RMB per ton. At present, the national sugar production for the 2025/26 marketing year has been completed, the domestic supply is generally sufficient, the launch of the summer consumption peak season is expected to drive the gradual digestion of inventories, and the overall market operation is stable. The forecast for China's sugar supply and demand situation in the 2026/27 marketing year remains unchanged from last month. Recently, affected by Typhoon "Maysak" and the monsoon, major producing areas such as Guangxi and Guangdong have suffered continuous heavy rainfall, increasing the uncertainty of sugar crop production. Internationally, affected by the increase in ethanol demand in Brazil, the sugarcane-to-sugar ratio has dropped year-on-year, leading to a reduction in sugar output. Coupled with the insufficient monsoon rainfall in India and the emerging high temperature and drought in Europe, sugar crops are facing the risk of production reduction, and the global sugar supply outlook may tighten. In the later period, close attention should be paid to the progress of domestic inventory digestion, the actual impact of typhoon disasters in major producing areas, the rhythm of Brazil's sugar production and the impact of global extreme weather.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.