Macroeconomics

1. [GDP] National Bureau of Statistics: Preliminary estimates show that China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first half of the year totaled 69.5704 trillion RMB. Calculated at constant prices, this represents a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. By sector, the value added of the primary industry was 3.1522 trillion RMB (up 3.7% year-on-year); the secondary industry was 25.0473 trillion RMB (up 3.9%); and the tertiary industry was 41.3709 trillion RMB (up 5.2%).

2. [Industrial Value Added] National Bureau of Statistics: In June, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year in real terms, an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, the value added of these enterprises rose by 0.76% in June. For the January–June period, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year.

3. [Electricity Consumption] National Energy Administration: In June, total electricity consumption across society reached 898.1 billion kWh, up 3.7% year-on-year. By sector, electricity consumption in the primary industry was 13.6 billion kWh (up 2.0%); the secondary industry was 573.4 billion kWh (up 4.7%); and the tertiary industry was 186.0 billion kWh (up 5.6%). Residential electricity consumption (urban and rural) was 125.1 billion kWh, down 3.1% year-on-year. From January to June, cumulative electricity consumption across society totaled 5.0999 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.

4. [M2] People's Bank of China: At the end of June, the outstanding balance of broad money (M2) stood at 356.71 trillion RMB, up 8% year-on-year. The outstanding balance of narrow money (M1) was 118.48 trillion RMB, up 4% year-on-year. The outstanding balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.74 trillion RMB, up 11.8% year-on-year. Net cash injection during the first half of the year totaled 641.7 billion RMB.

5. [RMB Loans] People's Bank of China: At the end of June, the outstanding balance of RMB loans stood at 282.63 trillion RMB, up 5.2% year-on-year. RMB loans increased by 10.72 trillion RMB during the first half of the year.

6. [Aggregate Financing] Central Bank: Preliminary statistics show that the outstanding stock of aggregate financing to the real economy stood at 462.06 trillion RMB at the end of June 2026, up 7.4% year-on-year. The cumulative increment of aggregate financing for the first half of 2026 was 20.84 trillion RMB, a decrease of 2.02 trillion RMB compared to the same period last year. Of this, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 10.76 trillion RMB, an increase 1.98 trillion RMB smaller than that of the same period last year.

7. [Automobiles] Data from the CPCA (China Passenger Car Association) shows that from July 1 to 12, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China totaled 280,000 units, down 8% year-on-year and down 3% compared to the same period last month; cumulative retail sales for the year reached 4.984 million units, down 14% year-on-year. Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers totaled 262,000 units during the same period, down 9% year-on-year and down 15% compared to the same period last month; cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 7.05 million units, up 4% year-on-year.

8. [US PPI] The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.5% year-on-year in June (forecast: 6.2%) and fell 0.3% month-on-month (forecast: flat).

9. [Bank of Korea Rate Hike] The Bank of Korea raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%—its first rate hike since January 2023—in line with market expectations.

Plastics and Rubber

1. [HDPE] On July 15, Fushun Petrochemical shut down its 80,000-ton full-density PE unit; the 450,000-ton linear PE unit is producing grade 7042N.

2. [Natural Rubber] On July 15, the natural rubber market in the Qingdao region trended upward, with traders raising offers by 100–250 RMB/ton. Prevailing quotes for 2024-production Yunbao/Guangkeng/Haibao rubber were 17,050–17,250 RMB/ton; for 2025-production Yunbao/Guangkeng/Haibao, they were 17,250–17,400 RMB/ton; and for Vietnamese 3L rubber, they were 17,850–18,000 RMB/ton.

3. [Natural Rubber] On July 15, prices for natural rubber raw materials in Thai producing regions edged up slightly: ribbed smoked sheets were quoted at 93.30 THB/kg (up 0.30 THB/kg); field latex was quoted at 80.30 THB/kg (stable); and cup lump was quoted at 70.40 THB/kg (up 0.10 THB/kg).

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