Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 16, the average ex-factory price for premium-grade DMF in the domestic market stood at 4,220 RMB/ton. Currently, the DMF market lacks bullish support, and industry sentiment leans bearish; prices remain under downward pressure. Downstream purchasing is cautious, with demand limited primarily to small orders for immediate needs, while cost support from the raw material methanol remains insufficient.
Analysis of Causes
Regarding the market: In mid-July 2026, the domestic DMF market remained sluggish, characterized by low-level stagnation and weak consolidation. The average price in major East China markets hovered between 4,400 and 4,500 RMB/ton; while the rate of decline compared to June narrowed, there was no significant rebound. Squeezed by both weakening costs and the off-season demand slump, the market lacked clear direction, leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among industry players, with actual transactions primarily consisting of small orders driven by immediate needs.
Regarding raw materials: Price trends: The domestic methanol market has recently seen prices fluctuate with a downward bias, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of inventory accumulation at ports; cost support remains limited. While prices for liquid ammonia (synthetic ammonia) have occasionally rebounded, they have generally remained stable without providing strong support. As for operating rates, industry capacity utilization remains low, hovering around 40% overall (fluctuating between 40% and 45% during certain periods). Certain production units in regions such as Henan, Guizhou, and Shandong are operating at reduced loads, undergoing short-term shutdowns, or remaining idle for the long term due to profitability concerns or inventory pressure, resulting in a moderation of supply growth.
Profitability: As raw material costs have declined in tandem, the theoretical production profit for DMF plants has remained stable, fluctuating within a narrow range around 300 RMB/ton. Integrated facilities and leading enterprises still retain some profit margins and have not yet reached the critical threshold where widespread losses would force shutdowns; consequently, there is little inclination among producers to actively push for higher prices or implement large-scale production cuts, meaning cost factors are unlikely to drive prices upward.
Regarding demand, the primary downstream sector is sluggish: the PU resin industry (accounting for approximately 60% of consumption)—which supplies the footwear, apparel, luggage, and synthetic leather sectors—is currently in its traditional off-season due to high temperatures. With insufficient end-market orders, resin manufacturers are operating at low rates and purchasing DMF strictly on an as-needed basis, showing no intention to stockpile. Support from other sectors remains limited; while demand for pharmaceutical and agrochemical intermediates as well as electronic-grade solvents is relatively stable, their volume is insufficient to offset the decline in resin-related consumption. On the export front, although there was a surge in volume earlier (with exports hitting a record high in May), overseas markets have recently entered a slow season, and fluctuating shipping costs have diminished the marginal impact of export growth on reducing domestic inventories.
Market outlook
Analysts at SunSirs believe that if the price of the raw material methanol continues to weaken due to inventory accumulation at ports, the cost base for DMF will shift downward; furthermore, should industry operating rates rise as previously idled units (such as those in Henan and Hubei) restart, supply pressure will once again become pronounced.
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