According to SunSirs’ data, the market for industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate (DMC) exhibited a trend of steady, modest gains and narrow-range fluctuations with an upward bias during the first half of July. By mid-month, market quotes saw slight increases—and transaction price levels edged up—supported by rising raw material costs and tight spot supplies resulting from maintenance at certain production facilities; however, gains were constrained by sluggish follow-through in end-user demand, preventing a sustained upward trend. As of July 15, the domestic average price for industrial-grade DMC stood at 3,866 RMB/ton, marking a 2.65% increase since the beginning of the month.

Fundamental Analysis

Cost Side: Rising raw material prices provided firm support.

During the first half of July, the markets for upstream raw materials—methanol and propylene oxide—experienced significant price surges, driving up the baseline raw material costs and providing sustained, fundamental support for the dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market. Faced with rising production costs and squeezed profit margins, manufacturers showed little willingness to sell at low prices; instead, they generally held firm on pricing and limited sales volume. This stance effectively underpinned DMC market prices and curbed the risk of a market downturn.

Supply side: Spot supplies were tight, and the pace of volume increases was slow.

In early July, several domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) units undergoing maintenance had yet to resume operations; consequently, the industry's overall operating rate remained at a low-to-moderate level, and total spot inventory was low—a tight supply situation that provided strong support for market prices. By mid-month, some previously idled units began to restart, leading to a slight increase in spot availability; however, the pace of production resumption was sluggish, and the limited volume of new supply in the short term failed to quickly alleviate the tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, major producers faced no inventory pressure and maintained a steady supply pace without resorting to large-scale sell-offs. While the supply-side factors remained generally favorable, the strength of this support was gradually waning.

Demand side: Basic demand provided a floor, but incremental demand was severely lacking.

Overall lackluster demand is the primary factor constraining any significant market rally. Demand patterns diverge sharply between the two key downstream sectors: the lithium-ion battery electrolyte sector shows relative stability, with steady inventory stocking by the new energy industry—driven by routine, essential procurement—providing a fundamental floor for the market. In contrast, traditional downstream sectors such as polycarbonate (PC), coatings, and adhesives are in their off-season; low operating rates and weak overall performance have dampened procurement enthusiasm, resulting in a "buy-as-needed" approach and small-volume restocking rather than concentrated or large-scale inventory accumulation.

Market Outlook:

Considering costs and supply-demand dynamics, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is expected to maintain a trend of narrow-range, slightly bullish fluctuation during the latter half of July. While the overall upward momentum is slowing and the scope for further gains is limited, there is no significant risk of a sharp decline; the market is highly likely to remain in a state of stalemate and stability. With limited volatility and insufficient momentum for either significant gains or losses, the market will be characterized primarily by stability and minor fluctuations.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.