Macroeconomics

1. [Boosting Consumption] The State Council has approved the "15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption." The goal is for the overall scale of the consumer market to continue expanding by 2030, with a significant rise in the household consumption rate and rapid growth in the consumption of goods and services across society. Total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach approximately 60 trillion RMB, further strengthening consumption's role in driving economic growth.

2. [Shipping] Trump stated that the blockade on Iran would be reimposed. The Strait of Hormuz remains open and will stay open, with or without Iran. The U.S. will receive compensation amounting to 20% of the value of goods transported through the strait.

3. [India CPI] India's CPI rose to 4.38% year-on-year in June, marking the first time in nearly 17 months that it exceeded the central bank's 4% target; this was driven primarily by rebounding food prices and rising international oil prices. The market believes this single month's data is unlikely to alter the central bank's policy stance, and rates are expected to remain unchanged in the short term.

Steels

1. [Ferrosilicon] Longteng Special Steel has issued a tender announcement for ferrosilicon dated July 14, planning to purchase 1,000 tonnes with a grade specification of 72. The deadline for quotations is 10:00 on July 15, and the delivery deadline is August 10, 2026.

Lingyuan Iron & Steel has issued a tender announcement for ferrosilicon for July, seeking the material in the 10-70 size range and FeSi72Al2.0 grade, with a tender volume of 750 tonnes. The bid submission deadline is 13:00 on July 16, 2026, and the delivery deadline is July 31, 2026.

2. [Galvanized Sheet] On July 13, 2026, the total trading volume across 154 surveyed galvanized steel enterprises nationwide was 15,295 tonnes, a decrease of 362 tonnes (or 2.31%) from the previous trading day. The Southwest region recorded the largest decline, with volume dropping by 223 tonnes (or 9.82%) compared to the previous trading day.

3. [Steel Products] In early July, social inventories of five major steel product categories across 21 cities totaled 9.69 million tonnes. This represented a month-on-month increase of 340,000 tonnes (up 3.6%), with the rate of inventory growth accelerating. Compared to the beginning of the year, inventory rose by 2.48 million tonnes (up 34.4%); compared to the same period last year, it increased by 1.94 million tonnes (up 25.0%). Regionally, social inventories rose in most of the seven major areas during early July, with slight declines observed only in Central China and Northeast China. The Southwest region saw the largest absolute and percentage increases in inventory, while Central China recorded the largest absolute decrease and Northeast China experienced the largest percentage decline.

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