Macroeconomics

1. [Boosting Consumption] The State Council has approved the "15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption." The goal is for the overall scale of the consumer market to continue expanding by 2030, with a significant rise in the household consumption rate and rapid growth in the consumption of goods and services across society. Total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach approximately 60 trillion RMB, further strengthening consumption's role in driving economic growth.

2. [Shipping] Trump stated that the blockade on Iran would be reimposed. The Strait of Hormuz remains open and will stay open, with or without Iran. The U.S. will receive compensation amounting to 20% of the value of goods transported through the strait.

3. [India CPI] India's CPI rose to 4.38% year-on-year in June, marking the first time in nearly 17 months that it exceeded the central bank's 4% target; this was driven primarily by rebounding food prices and rising international oil prices. The market believes this single month's data is unlikely to alter the central bank's policy stance, and rates are expected to remain unchanged in the short term.

Textiles

1. [Vinyl Cyanide] On July 14, Lihuayi Lijin Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. raised its spot price for vinyl cyanide by 100 RMB/ton, setting the ex-factory price at 9,200 RMB/ton; the company's production unit has an annual capacity of 260,000 tonnes and is currently operating normally.

2. [Polyester FDY] On July 13, Shaoxing Jiabao raised its quotes for polyester filament yarn. Prices for semi-dull FDY were: 75/36 at 8,560 RMB/ton; 150/96 at 8,260 RMB/ton; 200/96 at 8,260 RMB/ton; 300/96 at 8,260 RMB/ton; and 300D/192F at 8,260 RMB/ton. Prices for bright FDY were: 75/36 at 8,910 RMB/ton; 108/36 at 8,810 RMB/ton; 150/48 at 8,760; 200/96 at 8,760 RMB/ton; and 300/96 at 8,760 RMB/ton.

3. [Cotton Lint] Data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that as of July 9, the national processing rate stood at 100%, remaining flat year-on-year and matching the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 98.6%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year and 12.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years.

4. [Cotton Lint] The USDA’s July report indicates that global cotton supply for the 2026/27 marketing year increased by 300,000 bales, as higher production fully offset a reduction in beginning stocks. Global cotton production is forecast to rise by 1.2 million bales to 117.3 million bales; ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected to increase slightly to 71.2 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 58.4%.

5. [Cotton Lint] The USDA’s weekly crop progress report shows that for the week ending July 12, the "good-to-excellent" rating for U.S. cotton stood at 44%, compared to 46% the previous week and 54% during the same period last year. The squaring rate was 60% (versus 49% the previous week, 59% last year, and a five-year average of 59%), while the boll-setting rate was 22% (versus 14% the previous week, 22% last year, and a five-year average of 22%).

6. [Cotton Lint] In the supply and demand forecast report released by the USDA on July 10, U.S. cotton production for the 2026/27 marketing year was raised by 400,000 bales to 13.7 million bales. Harvested area was estimated at 7.54 million acres, a 2% increase from the previous month's forecast. The average yield was projected at 872 pounds per acre, up 6 pounds per acre month-over-month. Ending stocks were raised by 400,000 bales to 4.1 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 29.5%.

7. [Cotton Lint] According to CONAB (Brazil's National Supply Company, an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture), the cotton harvest rate in Brazil reached 8.1% as of July 10, compared to 5.1% the previous week, 13.6% during the same period last year, and a five-year average of 9.1%.

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