Price trends

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, caustic soda prices trended weakly overall last week. The average market price was 652 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and stood at approximately 643 RMB/ton by the weekend, representing a decline of 1.37% for the week and a year-on-year drop of 24.09%.

On July 9, the SunSirs Chlor-Alkali Index stood at 740 points—unchanged from the previous day; this figure is 65.23% lower than the cycle peak of 2,128 points (recorded on October 24, 2021) and 4.67% higher than the cycle low of 707 points (recorded on February 27, 2016). (Note: The tracking period spans from December 1, 2011, to the present.)

Market Analysis

According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, caustic soda prices trended weakly last week. Prices in the Shandong region rose, with mainstream market quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda hovering around 610-660 RMB/ton. Prices in the Zhejiang region remained stable, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda delivered to Xiaoshan at approximately 780-820 RMB/ton. Prices in Inner Mongolia consolidated, with mainstream quotes for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda at around 2,000-2,050 RMB/ton (on a 100% concentration basis). An accumulation of inventory at caustic soda enterprises last week exerted downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, alumina prices fell—with futures prices continuing to slide—leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment among most buyers; while some aluminum smelters replenished stocks moderately based on their inventory levels, alumina producers showed little enthusiasm for spot trading and remained cautious with their quotes. Demand from non-aluminum downstream sectors remained sluggish, with purchasing largely limited to immediate needs; the lack of positive drivers kept the market under pressure.

Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs observe that caustic soda prices trended weakly last week. While domestic downstream alumina producers are actively taking delivery, procurement by non-aluminum enterprises remains lackluster; however, operating rates for chlor-alkali plants in Shandong have hit a new low for the year, fueling expectations that the price decline will halt amidst the tug-of-war between supply and demand. Overall, caustic soda prices are expected to consolidate, with the specific trajectory depending on downstream market demand.

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