Prices of plasticizer DOP stopped falling and rose

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of July 9, the price of DOP stood at 8,109.16 RMB/ton. Compared to the price of 8,284.17 RMB/ton on July 1, the price initially fell and then rose, resulting in a net decline of 2.11%; however, compared to the price of 7,975.84 RMB/ton on July 6, it showed an increase of 1.67%. Driven by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, the price of isooctanol halted its decline and rose; this increased the raw material costs for DOP, pushing up the market price of DOP.

Raw material isooctanol prices halted decline and rose

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the quoted price of isooctanol stood at 7,400 RMB/ton as of June 29. Compared to the price of 7,966.67 RMB/ton on June 1, the price initially rose but subsequently fell, resulting in a net decline of 7.11%. Crude oil prices surged in response to the tightening of US sanctions on Iranian oil, shipping security crises in the Strait of Hormuz, and escalating US-Iran tensions; this upward pressure was transmitted downstream, causing isooctanol prices to halt their decline and rise, thereby strengthening support for the price of DOP.

Analysis of DOP Market Supply and Demand

Supply Side: Overall Supply Decreased

In July, the capacity utilization rate of the DOP industry fell to approximately 45%; while operating rates at major plants remained largely stable, the overall market supply of DOP decreased. However, the market remains in its off-season with persistent weak demand; market supply remains ample, and inventory reduction is proceeding slowly.

Demand Side: PVC Off-Season; DOP Demand Remained Sluggish

Sluggish demand is the primary factor constraining upward price momentum. Downstream PVC product sectors (such as artificial leather, cable compounds, films, and flooring) remain in their off-season, with poor end-market orders; downstream factories continue to purchase strictly on an as-needed basis, refusing to stock up in advance, and there is virtually no large-scale bulk procurement. Demand for plasticizers remains weak.

Market Outlook:

Analysts at the SunSirs observe the following: regarding costs, escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran have driven up crude oil prices; this has cascaded downstream, causing the price of isooctanol (2-EH)—a key raw material for DOP—to rebound, thereby increasing DOP production costs. On the supply side, operating rates at plasticizer plants have declined, reducing overall supply; however, market availability remains ample, and inventory drawdown is sluggish. Regarding demand, the market is in its off-season, and downstream demand remains weak. In summary, while rising 2-EH prices provide increased upward support for DOP, the combination of ample supply and persistent downstream weakness limits the potential for further gains; consequently, DOP prices are expected to rise initially and then consolidate at a high level.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.