According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, corrugated paper prices have recently shown a fluctuating upward trend, strengthening against the usual seasonal trend of the traditional off-season. As of July 9, the average ex-factory price for 140g corrugated base paper stood at 3,164 RMB/ton, marking a 2.26% increase compared to the average price on July 1.

Cost Side: Entering July, waste paper prices in the Zhejiang region remained stable with slight upward adjustments, while paper mills nationwide saw more significant price hikes. As of July 9, the average purchase price for Grade A waste corrugated cardboard in Zhejiang was 1,978 RMB/ton, up 0.51% from July 1. Currently, widespread and persistent rainfall across regions from south to north has hindered the drying, collection, and transport of waste paper at baling stations, causing a sharp drop in outdoor recovery volumes. Consequently, baling stations are reluctant to sell and are hoarding stock; supplies of dry corrugated cardboard circulating in the market are scarce, and high-quality Grade A waste paper is in short supply. To secure more stock, paper mills have continuously raised their purchase prices.

Supply Side: Paper mills undergoing maintenance in July have not yet fully resumed production, so the overall increase in output remains limited. Downstream markets continue to take delivery of goods, further reducing inventory levels; thus, there is no pressure to dump stock at low prices, giving paper mills ample confidence to raise prices. Furthermore, following a period of losses and market consolidation, small and inefficient production capacities have been phased out, increasing industry concentration. Paper enterprises across various production regions have reached a consensus on price hikes, with leading mills issuing successive price increase notices, resulting in highly unified pricing on the supply side.

Demand Side: In early July, downstream markets engaged in concentrated, demand-based restocking, driving continued positive transaction volumes for base paper. Although small and medium-sized carton factories are resistant to high-priced base paper—limiting purchase volumes and buying only as needed—large e-commerce and foreign trade packaging enterprises maintain stable orders. Essential procurement continues, keeping market transactions healthy and supporting a positive price trend. Additionally, early stocking for overseas Christmas packaging and a continued surge in export carton orders have diverted production capacity toward high-margin export business, thereby alleviating supply pressure on the domestic market. Analysts at SunSirs believe that current weather conditions are sustaining a tight supply of waste paper, providing a firm cost floor. Paper mills remain committed to maintaining low inventory levels and controlling production to support prices, while downstream pre-stocking ahead of the peak season and stable export orders ensure that demand remains robust. However, as downstream corrugated box manufacturers face profit pressure following successive price hikes, their willingness to purchase at high prices may wane; consequently, corrugated paper prices are expected to continue a trend of slow, modest increases in the short term.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.