Price trend

On July 8, the benchmark price for sulfur was 8,669.00 RMB/ton. Compared to the price of 8,935.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month (July 1), the cumulative decline for the week reached 2.98%. Recent price trends indicate a distinct pattern in the sulfur market: stability followed by a decline.

Fundamental Supply and Demand Analysis

The performance of sulfur and its related industry chain this week is as follows:

1. Domestic Sulfur: Trending Weakly Downward

Refinery Trends: Major refineries in regions such as Shandong, North China, and Northwest China are largely refraining from quoting prices; this indicates either a lack of confidence in the market outlook or manageable inventory pressure, making producers unwilling to sell at low prices. Meanwhile, independent refineries have generally lowered their quotes—with reductions ranging from 100 to 600 RMB/ton—leading the market decline. In the short term, the domestic sulfur market is expected to fluctuate at high levels, lacking the drivers needed for a strong rebound.

2. Port Sulfur: Prices Stabilized After Stopping the Decline

Market Sentiment: There is a lack of significant news regarding the ports, and market participants generally maintain a cautious, wait-and-see attitude. Trading activity is sluggish, with very few actual transactions taking place. Port prices have temporarily stabilized; they are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the near term while awaiting fresh bullish news to provide a boost.

3. Downstream Industry Chain

Sulfuric acid: The market is generally stable, with mixed movements in specific regions (prices fell in Jiangxi and Fujian but rose in Yunnan); overall, there is limited cost support for sulfur.

Phosphate fertilizers (MAP/DAP): Demand for both Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) and Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) remains weak, with sluggish follow-through on new orders. Downstream purchasing interest is low, and shipments are primarily fulfilling existing orders. This weak demand fails to provide effective cost-transmission support to upstream sulfur.

Titanium dioxide: The market is fluctuating with a downward bias, and end-user procurement is lackluster, further confirming the sluggish demand for chemical products at the end-market level.

Market Outlook:

Overall, the sulfur market this week has been weighed down by sluggish downstream demand, causing prices to shift lower. From a technical perspective, short-term moving averages are aligned in a bearish pattern, and downward momentum persists; however, given that prices have entered the "low range" relative to the 10-day and 20-day cycles, the scope for further steep declines may be limited.

Short-term outlook: Early next week, the sulfur market is expected to undergo weak consolidation and fluctuate within a lower range. Domestically produced sulfur remains at risk of a catch-up decline, while port-based sulfur may attempt to establish a price floor.

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