According to SunSirs monitoring, the PA66 market weakened again this week (July 1–7). The market reference price was 18,366.67 RMB/ton on July 1; prices remained stable from July 1 to 6 but dipped to 18,033.33 RMB/ton on July 7, marking a cumulative weekly decline of 1.81%. Since peaking at 20,766.67 RMB/ton in early June, the price has fallen by over 11.56% year-to-date, exhibiting a pattern of "stagnation early in the week followed by a breakdown and decline toward the weekend," with prices hitting new lows for the period.

Cost Side: Upstream prices for adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine remained weak this week, with no significant rebound momentum for raw materials; consequently, the comprehensive production cost of PA66 continued to drift lower, further weakening the price floor. International crude oil prices trended downward amidst volatility as geopolitical risk premiums eroded. Factors such as OPEC+'s announced production increase for August and Saudi Arabia's reduction of official selling prices for Asia fueled expectations of long-term weakness in the energy sector, suppressing prices for upstream raw materials like pure benzene and creating a persistent bearish drag on costs. Industry processing margins have shifted from profit to loss, prompting some manufacturers to slightly reduce operating rates; however, the overall contraction in supply has been limited, and cost support remains only marginal and temporary, failing to reverse the downward trend.

Supply and Demand Side: The market continues to face a situation of loose supply and sluggish demand. On the supply side, new upstream hexamethylenediamine capacity continues to come online, and polymerization plant operating rates remain at moderate levels. Inventories at both factories and trading firms are accumulating, intensifying pressure to move stock; consequently, more holders are proactively lowering quotes and offering price concessions to secure orders. On the demand side, the industry remains in its traditional off-season. Orders from downstream sectors—such as automotive parts and electronics/appliances—have failed to recover as expected. Downstream factories are limiting purchases to small, essential replenishment orders and show little willingness to stock up in bulk. Market trading is quiet, and essential demand alone is insufficient to drive a price recovery. In the short term, the PA66 market is unlikely to break out of its pattern of weak, fluctuating performance; prices retain some room for a slight decline, and a sustained rebound is improbable. Prices are expected to hover in the 17,600–18,600 RMB/tonne range, continuing to bottom out at low levels. A market turnaround hinges on the emergence of clear positive signals, such as a significant surge in crude oil prices, concerted price hikes for adipic acid or hexamethylenediamine, or concentrated restocking by downstream end-users.

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