According to The Paper, the domestic coke market has initiated ten rounds of price increases so far this year.

On July 3, major coking enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei issued price adjustment notices announcing a hike of 50 RMB/ton for wet-quenched coke and 55 RMB/ton for dry-quenched coke, effective July 6, thereby officially launching the tenth round of increases. Since the upward cycle began in late March, the previous nine rounds of price hikes have all been fully implemented, resulting in a cumulative increase of over 450 RMB/ton. The ninth round was fully implemented on July 1; major steel mills in Shandong set their tax-inclusive procurement prices at 1,845 RMB/ton for quasi-first-grade wet-quenched metallurgical coke and 2,135 RMB/ton for quasi-first-grade dry-quenched metallurgical coke.

As of July 7, although coking enterprises had initiated the tenth round of price hikes, major steel mills had not yet provided a clear response.

In the futures market, as of July 7, the closing price for the main coke contract stood at 1,936 RMB/ton, an increase of nearly 36% year-on-year.

The fundamental driver behind the continuous rise in coke prices is the strong surge in upstream coking coal prices. Coking coal accounts for over 70% of coke production costs, so fluctuations in its price are directly transmitted to coke prices. Between March and April of this year, geopolitical factors drove up oil prices, which in turn pushed domestic coal prices higher. A coal mine accident in Shanxi on May 22 triggered province-wide safety overhauls; combined with sustained high-pressure safety inspections during "Safe Production Month" in June, this led to widespread production halts in major producing regions. Consequently, the supply of coking coal tightened, causing prices to rise. Data from Baichuan Yingfu shows that national coking coal production in May was 37.5478 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%.

According to SunSirs data, as of July 7, the spot price of coking coal was 1,911.25 RMB/ton, up 54.6% year-on-year, while the main coking coal futures contract closed at 1,273 RMB/ton e—an increase of over 50% compared to the same period last year. Notably, coke production itself has not declined despite the contraction in coking coal supply. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that national coke output in May 2026 stood at 42.725 million tons, up 1.1% year-on-year; the cumulative output for the January–May period was 210.371 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.

On the demand side, the coke market currently presents a complex picture characterized by "firm underlying support alongside eroding profit margins." On one hand, high levels of hot metal production at steel mills provide a floor for coke demand. Hot metal output is the most direct indicator of actual coke consumption. Data indicates that the average daily hot metal output across 247 surveyed steel mills has remained stable above 2.4 million tons for several consecutive months. The Futures Research Institute forecasts that cumulative coke consumption (for steelmaking) in the second half of 2026 will reach 205 million tons—flat year-on-year—demonstrating continued resilience in overall demand.

On the other hand, however, the profitability of steel mills has dropped sharply. A research report notes that as of the end of June, the profit rate among the 247 steel mills fell by 8.22 percentage points to 42.86%, leading to a growing inclination among mills to cut production.

Following multiple rounds of price hikes, profits at coking enterprises have improved significantly. Data shows that for the week ending July 3, the average profit per ton of coke at 30 independent coking plants rebounded to RMB 47, an increase of RMB17 week-on-week. A report similarly mentions that coking enterprise profits improved after the implementation of the ninth round of price increases, with current production profits hovering around 50 RMB/ton.

While coke price hikes have boosted coking enterprise profits, the significant contraction in steel mill profitability and limited willingness to restock mean that coal and coke prices will likely fluctuate at high levels in the short term; any further upward movement depends on whether demand for finished steel products can sustain it. Meanwhile, Spot prices for coking coal and coke have likely neared the turning point of the current rally, with a rising probability of a shift from gains to losses over the next two months—and a likelihood that the pullback in coking coal prices will be more pronounced than that of coke.

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