Price trend

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices saw a slight decline in June. By the end of the month, the spot price of stainless steel stood at 13,498.33 RMB/ton, down 1.16% from 13,656.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, but up 14.6% year-on-year.

Annual Stainless Steel Price Comparison

A comparison of annual stainless steel prices over the past five years by SunSirs shows that prices in July have largely remained firm, primarily due to the high volume of maintenance work at steel mills during that month.

Raw materials:

In June, the overall cost baseline for stainless steel raw materials shifted downward. Regarding the nickel sector, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources signaled a moderate relaxation of nickel ore mining quotas; combined with increased shipments of low-grade ore from the Philippines, ore supplies have become more plentiful. Consequently, high-nickel pig iron prices have faced downward pressure, trading domestically at 1,165 RMB per nickel unit. In the chromium sector, both TISCO and Tsingshan lowered their procurement prices for high-carbon ferrochrome by 200 RMB per 50-base-ton unit for July; softening chrome ore prices exacerbated the decline in ferrochrome, with spot prices quoted at 8,150 RMB per 50-base-ton unit. Aggregate calculations indicate that raw material costs for 304 cold-rolled stainless steel fell by approximately 100–200 RMB/ton compared to the previous period; current mainstream costs stand at roughly 14,400–14,500 RMB/ton, with steel mills realizing spot profits of about 200–300 RMB/ton. Given these decent profit margins, steel mills show little inclination to voluntarily cut production, keeping supply levels relatively high, while the support provided by raw material costs to steel prices continues to weaken.

Supply Side:

The supply landscape is characterized by a month-on-month decline in production, though levels remain high year-on-year. In May, the combined crude stainless steel output of 41 domestic mills totaled 3.8163 million tonnes—a month-on-month increase of 1.8% and a substantial year-on-year rise of 25.8%. Entering June, multiple steel mills have scheduled maintenance and production cuts; major players such as Baosteel Desheng, TISCO Stainless, and Huale Alloy are among those involved, with the resulting reduction in output estimated to exceed 160,000 tonnes. Planned crude stainless steel production for June stands at 3.6043 million tonnes, down 5.6% month-on-month but up 9.5% year-on-year. Regarding cold-rolled products, planned output from 41 domestic mills for June is projected at 1.4735 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.57% month-on-month and an increase of 3.89% year-on-year. Despite the notable month-on-month drop, production remains nearly 10% higher than the same period last year, and market supply volume stays at a five-year high for this time of year; the production cuts reflect a marginal shift in expectations rather than a fundamental contraction in supply, meaning the oversupply situation remains essentially unchanged.

Demand Side:

In June, the stainless steel industry entered its traditional off-season, with the release of end-user demand falling significantly short of expectations. Hot and rainy weather severely hampered outdoor construction progress, leading to a marked weakening of demand in construction-related sectors such as architectural decoration and stainless steel piping. Orders in traditional manufacturing sectors—including home appliances, kitchenware, and hardware—were insufficient; downstream enterprises focused primarily on depleting existing inventories, and market transactions were driven by essential, immediate needs rather than large-scale, bulk restocking orders. Regarding apparent consumption, after remaining at relatively high levels from January to March, the figure fell back to approximately 3.3955 million tons in April, clearly signaling a downward trend in demand during the off-season. Overall operating rates among downstream end-users remained sluggish; the real estate sector continued to struggle, and business sentiment in traditional manufacturing was subdued, resulting in a severe lack of genuine purchasing power. Downstream users generally adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" attitude regarding the market outlook and showed little willingness to stock up. Trading activity remained quiet, and even price pullbacks failed to spark significant interest in large-scale purchasing, causing the support provided by demand to prices to weaken further.

Stainless steel inventory

Stainless steel inventories declined in June. By the end of the month, total stainless steel inventories stood at 1.1216 million tonnes, down 0.97% from the previous week.

Market outlook

In summary, the stainless steel market is expected to remain volatile with a bearish bias in the short term (July), with the trading range for 304 cold-rolled coils projected at 13,800–14,800 RMB/ton. While production cuts on the supply side provide a floor for prices, the market remains dominated by three headwinds—the off-season for demand, sluggish exports, and weakening raw material costs—making substantial improvement unlikely. In the medium term, the revision of Indonesia's RKAB quotas for the third quarter is the key variable; if quota tightening is implemented—compounded by supply-side contractions such as the shift from nickel pig iron (NPI) to high-grade nickel matte production—the cost baseline could rise, potentially leading to a period of price strength. However, as demand growth is expected to remain low for the remainder of the year, the overall upside potential remains limited. Market participants are advised to monitor Indonesian policy developments and changes in steel mill production schedules.

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