Price trends
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, domestic BDO prices remained at 7,716 RMB/ton from July 1 to July 7, marking a month-on-month decline of 4.54% and a year-on-year drop of 11.67%. Both supply and demand showed an upward trend; market participants maintained a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with trading primarily driven by essential contract orders while spot market negotiations remained sluggish. Amid the ongoing tug-of-war between supply and demand, the domestic BDO market fluctuated within a narrow range.
On the supply side, production units—including Wuheng Chemical’s Phase I plant, Xinjiang Xinye, and Xinjiang Meike—have successively restarted, leading to an increase in supply volume. The BDO supply outlook is influenced by bearish factors.
Statistics on the operating status of selected production facilities:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua |
The 100,000-ton annual capacity unit shut down on June 9, with the restart date yet to be determined |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
Phase III units shut down, while phases I and IV operate stably; Phases II and V underwent maintenance on June 15 until the end of June and have now resumed |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO unit load is 60%. |
|
Shaanxi Heimao |
Temporary suspension on the evening of June 29 and reopening on July 3, with the August replacement plan for replacement |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The 60,000+70,000 tons will undergo maintenance on June 9, the 70,000-ton unit will be maintained from May 9 until the major inspection is completed, and will be gradually restarted soon, with products expected to be delivered in early July |
|
Inner Mongolia Dongjing Biotech |
Phase I parking in progress; Phase II have 50-day maintenance from June 10 |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
Phase I unit operates stably; Phase II unit load is 60-70%, maintenance schedule to be determined |
Regarding costs, the calcium carbide market saw supply tightening due to strained power supplies; meanwhile, a reduction in concentrated maintenance shutdowns downstream led to a partial recovery in market demand. With supply clearly falling short of demand, calcium carbide prices rose rapidly, and inventories were depleted. In contrast, methanol prices dropped sharply. With calcium carbide prices trending upward and methanol prices plunging, the impact on BDO costs was mixed.
On the demand side, downstream end-user demand has been lackluster, placing supply-demand pressure on various downstream sectors. A desire to move inventory has prompted price concessions in actual transactions, dragging down market prices across most downstream segments; consequently, there is resistance to high raw material costs, with activity limited to the fulfillment of existing contracts and sluggish spot market negotiations. Overall, BDO demand is being influenced by bearish factors.
Market outlook
With feedstock calcium carbide prices trending firm and methanol fluctuating at low levels, cost pressures on BDO persist; meanwhile, operating rates in the downstream PTMEG, PBT, and PU slurry sectors have risen, driving increased demand. Overall, SunSirs BDO analysts anticipate that the domestic BDO market will likely see narrow-range adjustments.
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