According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices fell from 5,237 RMB/ton to 5,100 RMB/ton between June 29 and July 3. This represents a period-on-period decline of 2.63%, a month-on-month drop of 17.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.83%. Weak international crude oil prices combined with sluggish gasoline demand have hindered shipments for MTBE producers; consequently, manufacturers have once again lowered prices to boost sales volume, causing the market's trading price center to edge downward.
Regarding costs and crude oil: International oil prices have fallen. Key bearish factors include the agreement between the US and Iran to deepen peace talks, a significant improvement in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the narrowing of supply gaps, all of which have weakened geopolitical support for oil prices. As of July 2, the settlement price for the September Brent crude oil futures contract stood at $71.80 per barrel.
Regarding demand and downstream sectors: Continued weakness in international crude oil prices has dragged down the refined oil market, prompting refineries to frequently cut prices for promotions. However, current terminal demand remains insufficient, and the digestion of commercial inventories is slow. Middlemen are cautious about locking in prices for orders, while downstream users generally maintain low-to-medium inventory levels for purchasing and sales; market transactions are driven primarily by essential demand. The MTBE demand outlook is influenced by bearish factors.
Regarding supply: The Bengu New Materials unit is scheduled for maintenance, and Dechen Energy may have plans to shut down its unit, potentially leading to reduced resource supplies. The MTBE supply outlook is influenced by bullish factors.
As of the close on July 2, the Asian MTBE market closing price rose by $2.69/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $786.07–$788.07/ton. The European MTBE market closing price increased by $21/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices settling at $1,047.99–$1,048.49/ton. The US MTBE closing price fell by $9.88/tonne compared to the previous trading day, with the FOB Gulf Coast price settling at $1,143.27–$1,143.63/tonne (322.81–322.91 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: Rising feedstock prices—particularly the high cost of domestic isobutane—are exerting significant cost pressure. Meanwhile, international oil prices face potential slight declines, and expectations for a drop in the next round of retail price caps for refined oil products offer no bullish support for the market. With refineries facing continued downward pressure on prices, SunSirs MTBE analysts anticipate that the market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation with a weak trend.
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