According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, softwood pulp prices saw a slight recovery this week after rebounding from oversold lows, whereas hardwood pulp prices continued to decline. As of July 3, the average market price for softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,833.33 RMB/ton, up 1.05% from the average on June 28. On the same day, the average market price for hardwood pulp in Shandong was 4,426.27 RMB/ton, down 0.52% from June 28.
Regarding supply: Overseas pulp quotes for July continued to drop, shifting the overall import cost baseline downward and leaving traders with little incentive to hold firm on prices. The market remains characterized by ample supply; although overseas pulp mills have entered their annual maintenance periods, the long ocean shipping cycle (25–40 days) means that production cuts from maintenance will not impact port arrivals in July. Thus, while long-term expectations are bullish, there is no immediate support for a contraction in spot supply.
Inventory levels at major pulp ports showed a downward trend during this period, marking the third consecutive week of destocking. As of July 2, sampled inventory at major Chinese pulp ports stood at 2.302 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (down 0.9%) from the previous period. Inventory at Qingdao Port—a major domestic hub—increased, though the average daily shipment speed accelerated compared to the previous period. Meanwhile, inventory at Changshu Port declined as shipment volumes rose, exceeding 70,000 tons.
Regarding demand: In early July, leading paper companies raised prices for cultural paper and white cardboard in unison. The core driver was a continued increase in export packaging orders and high operating rates for white cardboard production, which slightly boosted demand for wood pulp and prompted paper mills to make small-scale, essential restocking purchases. However, despite the collective price hikes by paper mills, downstream printing and packaging plants—having already stocked up heavily earlier—are currently focusing on consuming their existing inventories; consequently, paper mills are purchasing pulp only on an as-needed basis, with no large-scale stockpiling activity. Traders have mostly made minor price adjustments in line with market fluctuations; however, downstream follow-through remains cautious, spot trading volume is insufficient, and demand-side factors are failing to drive a sustained upward trend.
Regarding futures: Pulp futures fell to a periodic low in late June, creating a technical need for a rebound following the oversold condition. A surge occurred on July 1 as funds engaged in bargain hunting, though gains were capped by loose supply-demand fundamentals. As of July 3, 2026, the main pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 4,742 yuan/tonne and closed at 4,752 yuan/tonne, with a high of 4,770 yuan/tonne; trading volume stood at 167,600 lots, and open interest was 355,800 lots.
Analysts at SunSirs believe that short-term bullish factors include a recovery in market sentiment driven by collective price hikes from paper mills, expectations of future supply tightening due to maintenance at overseas pulp mills, and price support from export packaging orders. Conversely, factors weighing on prices include high port inventories, the traditional downstream off-season, paper mills limiting purchases to immediate needs, lowered overseas pulp quotes, and pressure from delivery warehouse receipts for near-month futures contracts. Consequently, the rebound in pulp prices is expected to lack sustainability, with prices likely to continue fluctuating within a low range.
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