Price trends: Predominantly stable throughout the month, with slight regional divergence.

In June, the domestic market for color coated sheets exhibited a trend of a slight early-month rally, mid-month fluctuation and decline, and stabilization with a stalemate by month-end. While the overall price level shifted slightly downward, the market performed significantly better than other coated products—such as galvanized sheets—displaying a divergent pattern characterized by stable official quotes alongside "hidden" price concessions. The national average price for mainstream 0.47mm color coated sheets saw a slight month-on-month decline. Market conditions were defined by a cost floor, a seasonal demand lull, trade barriers affecting exports, and a state of weak supply-demand balance; price volatility narrowed throughout the month, lacking the momentum for a sustained unidirectional move, and the market primarily traded within a tight range. Prices stood at 6,500 RMB/ton on both June 1 and June 30, indicating that the average price for the month remained stable relative to the start of the period, though it was 0.763% lower than the same period last year.

Galvanized Sheet: Prices for galvanized sheet saw a slight decline this month. The price stood at 4,212 RMB/ton on June 1 and 4,165 RMB/ton on June 30, representing a 1.115% drop from the beginning of the month and a 2.033% increase year-on-year. Downstream demand in the coated sheet market remained tepid, resulting in sluggish trading activity.

Analysis of supply and demand fundamentals

(I) Supply Side: High Operating Rates and Steady Output

In June, the nationwide operating rate for color coated steel production lines remained within the year's high range of 88%–90%. Most major steel mills conducted minimal maintenance, maintained steady production schedules, and kept overall capacity utilization between 59% and 62%; average monthly output saw a slight increase compared to May, ensuring generally ample market supply. A divergent pattern emerged among steel mills: integrated (long-process) mills leveraged their own cold rolled substrates to maintain strong production continuity, whereas private color coated steel enterprises faced fluctuating profits due to varying substrate procurement costs, leading to a greater willingness to lower prices and secure orders at month-end to recover funds and reduce inventory. Overall social inventory remained low compared to the same period over the past three years; while mill inventories saw a slight buildup and social inventories declined slowly, inventory pressure remained moderate and manageable, with no widespread stockpiling issues.

(II) Demand Side: Onset of the traditional off-season—weak overall volume and structural divergence

This month marks the official start of the traditional off-season for steel consumption. Nationwide, a combination of high temperatures and frequent rainfall has led to a marked contraction in demand for construction-grade color coated steel—such as that used for steel-structure workshops and roofing/cladding. Outdoor construction schedules have been delayed, and bulk procurement has dropped significantly. Demand exhibits clear structural divergence:

1. Seasonal demand for traditional building envelopes has softened; intermediaries are generally maintaining low inventory levels, restocking only in small batches based on immediate needs rather than engaging in large-scale stockpiling.

2. Although the home appliance sector is supported by "trade-in" policies, June marks the start of the off-season for production and sales; consequently, order volumes for air conditioner and refrigerator casings have seen limited growth, failing to provide a significant boost to demand for color coated sheets.

3. Orders driven by essential demand in high-end sectors—such as Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV), cleanroom facilities, and prefabricated construction—have provided a floor for the market; this has been the core factor supporting the resilience of color coated sheet prices and the key reason why market performance this month has outpaced that of galvanized sheets.

(III) Export Side: Concentration of Trade Barriers Put Significant Pressure on Overseas Sales

A wave of overseas trade policies was rolled out in June: Turkey imposed high anti-dumping duties on Chinese color coated sheets for a five-year term, while Japan and South Korea initiated anti-dumping investigations into Chinese cold rolled and coated/plated sheets. These moves significantly raised market entry barriers in two key traditional export regions—the Middle East and East Asia—leading to a marked decline in export orders for low-end Chinese color coated products. Consequently, some export-destined inventory was diverted back to the domestic market, indirectly increasing supply pressure within the domestic circulation system and dampening market sentiment regarding the medium-to-long-term outlook.

4) Cost Side: Prices of cold rolled substrates surged then retreated; cost support shifted from strong to weak.

This month, prices for upstream cold rolled substrates followed a pattern of rising in the first ten days and falling during the middle and latter parts of the month. Early in the month, rising prices for coke and iron ore drove up costs, providing support for color coated sheets. However, from mid-month onwards, hot-rolled coil futures remained weak and spot prices for cold rolled steel underwent successive corrections; consequently, production costs for color coated sheets gradually declined and steel mills saw some recovery in processing margins. Yet, this drop in costs failed to stimulate a rebound in trading volume; instead, it intensified the market's wait-and-see sentiment, creating a dynamic where falling raw material prices coincided with weak finished product performance.

Market Outlook:

Prices for color coated sheets are unlikely to see significant, trend-driven fluctuations in July; market quotes will remain largely stable, while spot transactions will continue to rely on price negotiations and concessions. Overall price levels may experience a slight, gradual decline. Key factors to monitor include raw material price trends, steel mills' production schedules for July, and the volume of orders for photovoltaic-related applications.

Current prices for color coated sheets are at a median level relative to the past year and remain relatively stable; while there is a possibility of a short-term increase, the likelihood of such a rise is low.

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