The phenol market followed a clear price trajectory in June, with opening and closing prices remaining essentially flat. The market was stable at the beginning of the month, with a benchmark price of approximately 7,380 RMB/ton and downstream buyers purchasing only to meet immediate needs. During the first ten days of the month, major refining and chemical enterprises concerted their efforts to support prices and raised their listed rates; this boosted market sentiment regarding spot goods, driving prices rapidly to a monthly high of 7,800 RMB/ton and sparking a brief period of active trading.

After an initial surge, upward momentum waned, and prices trended downward during the latter half of the month. High prices dampened downstream purchasing, and with market supplies gradually easing, multiple enterprises lowered their quotes. As of June 29, the market benchmark price had retreated to 7,500 RMB/ton, with a spot reference price of 7,450 RMB/ton—levels returning to the core range seen at the start of the month. Overall, the price saw a marginal monthly increase of 0.95%, with limited volatility.

1. Price Increases in Early Month: Producer Price Support and Minor Cost-Side Backing

The upward price trend in the first ten days of the month was primarily driven by producers holding firm on prices and minor support from costs. Localized maintenance at phenol-ketone units early in the month led to a temporary supply tightness; with factory inventories running low, producers showed a strong determination to maintain price levels. Meanwhile, the stabilization of upstream pure benzene prices—combined with market demand for a correction following previous overselling—helped push phenol prices higher during this period.

2. Pullback in the second half of the month: Ample supply and weak end-user demand

Market trends reversed downward during the second half of the month, driven primarily by a weakening supply-demand dynamic. On the supply side, the restart of previously idled units and a rise in industry operating rates—compounded by the release of new production capacity—led to sustained ample supply and a gradual accumulation of inventory, effectively neutralizing the bullish impact of the earlier supply tightness.

Weaknesses associated with the off-season became apparent on the demand side; downstream sectors—such as bisphenol A and phenolic resins—operated at low rates and held high inventories of finished goods, limiting purchasing activity to essential replenishment without any significant bulk stocking. High prices further dampened buying interest, resulting in sluggish trading and forcing traders to offer price concessions to move stock. Additionally, a decline in pure benzene prices during the month eroded cost support, accelerating the downward correction in phenol prices.

Overall, the phenol market in June was characterized by weak cost support, ample supply, and sluggish demand. While short-term factors—such as plant maintenance and producers’ efforts to hold prices firm—provided a slight boost, the bearish pressures of off-season demand and loose supply dominated, ultimately causing prices to retreat after an initial rise. The market demonstrated reasonable resilience, avoiding a sharp, one-sided decline and instead remaining within a fluctuating range.

According to SunSirs, the phenol market is unlikely to shake off its weak trend in the short term; high operating rates and ample supplies persist, while the off-season effect continues to dampen demand and downstream operating rates remain sluggish, leaving the market without upward momentum. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 7,400-7,600 RMB/ton. Moving forward, market trends will be primarily driven by the price of pure benzene, maintenance schedules for major production units, and the pace of downstream operational resumption.

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