According to Sina Finance, the United States and Iran reached an agreement on June 17 to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, is the world's most critical route for oil and gas transport. Shipping through the strait had previously come to a near-standstill following the outbreak of hostilities between the two nations in February.

Under the interim agreement, both sides consented to a 60-day period of free passage for commercial vessels while negotiations regarding a permanent end to the conflict took place. Consequently, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded, and international oil prices dropped sharply as markets anticipated a resumption of Middle Eastern crude supplies.

However, the situation remains volatile. Iran continues to assert control over this maritime chokepoint and has threatened to impose permanent transit fees on passing vessels in the future. Iran also opposes the U.S. proposal to provide naval escorts for commercial ships. Attacks on a container ship and an oil tanker on June 25 and 27, respectively, underscored that security risks in the strait have not been eliminated.

Why does free passage remain a distant prospect, even as operations in the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Several factors contribute to this situation:

Risk of Attack

The U.S. Navy has provided escorts for commercial vessels traversing the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz—near Omani waters—encouraging more shipowners to resume voyages and allowing millions of barrels of crude oil previously stranded in the Persian Gulf to be transported to the Gulf of Oman. An alternative route approved by Iran has also handled significant volumes of oil and gas transport, particularly Iran's own exports.

The Iranian military has labeled the Oman route "unacceptable and extremely dangerous," and vessels and their crews continue to face the risk of violent attacks. Although two incidents in late June resulted in no casualties, the vessels involved sustained damage. Subsequently, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)—responsible for coordinating communication between navies and commercial shipping—raised the threat level for the region back to "high," having only recently lowered it to "medium."

For commercial seafarers, working in a conflict zone is inherently unsettling. Data from the UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) indicates that, as of June 30, the conflict involving Iran has resulted in the deaths of at least 14 crew members and 49 attacks causing damage to vessels.

Consequently, the shipping industry prefers to wait until hostilities have definitively ceased before fully resuming operations.

The Threat of Sea Mines

It is widely believed that Iran has laid sea mines in the previously busiest shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing vessels to navigate closer to the Iranian or Omani coasts instead. However, the capacity of these alternative routes to handle current traffic volumes has not yet been fully verified.

Clearing mines from the main shipping lanes would facilitate a return to normal operations. The 14-point agreement reached between the US and Iran includes a requirement for Iran to clear these mines.

The IMO estimates there are approximately 80 sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Mine-clearing operations could take weeks, and there is still disagreement regarding who should carry out the task.

Unclear Roles and Responsibilities

Before the conflict, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz—like in other vital international straits—was taken for granted, with only rare exceptions. Now, Iran views the threat to shipping in the Strait as a key bargaining chip in its external dealings; it has established a new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," declaring that all vessels must obtain the Authority's permission to pass through in the future.

Many shipowners have stated that they do not wish to be forced to communicate with any specific party, and are particularly reluctant to deal with the Iranian government in waters where the principle of freedom of navigation should apply.

Future management arrangements remain to be negotiated. Under the 14-point agreement, Iran and Oman are set to discuss the future management of the Strait of Hormuz and maritime services with other Persian Gulf nations. On June 30, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that Iran hopes to establish a bilateral mechanism with Oman to jointly manage vessel traffic, though it is prepared to proceed with its own plan if necessary.

BIMCO, the world's largest international shipping association, has stated that there must be immediate clarity regarding who will coordinate vessel traffic in the future. The organization suggests that a UN agency or a neutral nation could assume this responsibility. Transit Fees

The US-Iran framework agreement stipulates that the period of toll-free passage will end after 60 days; it remains uncertain whether free passage will continue thereafter, and it is currently unclear whether vessels will be required to pay transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz in the future.

Iranian officials have stated that levying transit fees could generate billions of dollars in annual revenue, helping to rebuild an economy devastated by the war. Although US Secretary of State Rubio has indicated that the US goal remains the restoration of complete freedom of navigation through the Strait, at least one senior US official has acknowledged that the future management model for the Strait will likely differ significantly from the pre-war arrangement.

This issue is particularly thorny for shipowners. The US has previously stated that paying transit fees to the Iranian government could violate sanctions; shipowners worry that making such payments to Iran could result in them being blacklisted by the US.

Major energy companies are also expected to oppose any fee-based arrangement. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated in an interview this May that his company would not consider paying fees for passage through the Strait.

Stalled Oil and Gas Production

The halt in oil and gas production during the war is another major factor hindering the return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, the Strait handled approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments. While the war forced the rerouting of significant crude oil volumes—thereby diminishing the Strait's importance—the impact was limited.

Once oil wells cease production, even if shut down intentionally, recovery efficiency can decline, leading to long-term operational losses. Other facilities have ceased operations due to war-related damage. Market research firm Rystad Energy estimates the cost of rebuilding oil and gas infrastructure in the region at approximately $42 billion.

For some countries, production halted simply because crude oil could not be exported after the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Due to a lack of alternative pipelines, Kuwait's crude oil production fell to 490,000 barrels per day in May—only about one-fifth of pre-war levels—before gradually recovering in June. Officials from the UAE and Saudi Arabia have stated that both nations have maintained sufficient wellhead pressure and expect to return to pre-war production levels within weeks.

As oil and gas facilities gradually restart, oil tankers that had previously served the Persian Gulf—but were subsequently diverted to other routes or taken out of service—must be redeployed to the region. Rystad analysts estimate that this process will take approximately two months. They project that crude oil production in the Persian Gulf region will rebound significantly between August and September; by the beginning of the fourth quarter, approximately 85% to 90% of the lost output is expected to be restored, with a full recovery anticipated by January 2027.

Wood Mackenzie analysts noted that most refineries in the region maintained minimum operations—thereby avoiding a lengthy restart process—and only a few facilities sustained severe damage during the conflict. Provided that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to gradually resume, crude oil exports will be prioritized, and exports of refined products—including jet fuel and diesel—are expected to return to 2025 levels by the end of this year.

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