Price trend

Throughout June 2026, the domestic MIBK market trended weakly downward, characterized by accelerating price declines, sluggish supply and demand, and a lack of cost support. Driven by a combination of bearish factors—including ample supply, the off-season for downstream demand, and shrinking exports—market prices shifted significantly lower; trading activity was subdued, and market participants adopted a cautious "wait-and-see" stance, with no effective positive drivers emerging throughout the month.

MIBK spot prices trended downward throughout June, with the decline accelerating toward the end of the month. The market benchmark price fell from 11,860 RMB/ton at the start of the month to 9,467 RMB/ton on June 30, marking a drop of over 20%.

Supply Side: Overcapacity Intensified; Pressure to Move Inventory Remained High

Domestic MIBK plants operated stably in June with high operating rates and no large-scale maintenance shutdowns, resulting in ample overall supply. The continued ramp-up of new and expanded production capacity has further highlighted the market's overcapacity.

Manufacturer inventories have continued to accumulate; to recoup funds and reduce stock levels, producers have generally offered price concessions, leading to softer quotes that keep market prices under pressure. Overall, the market remains in a weak state characterized by loose supply, high inventory levels, and difficulties in moving product.

Demand Side: Sluggishness in the off-season and quiet market trading

The seasonal demand lull is the primary reason for the market's weakness this month. Downstream sectors—such as coatings, inks, and fine chemicals—have seen low operating rates due to high summer temperatures, resulting in only sporadic, essential restocking rather than bulk purchasing. Facing insufficient orders and constrained profit margins, downstream industries are generally limiting their raw material procurement.

Traders are acting cautiously, favoring quick turnover and purchasing strictly according to immediate needs, with little appetite for stockpiling. Procurement volumes in the East China market—a key consumption hub accounting for 42.7% of total demand—have continued to shrink; this has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance and stifled any market recovery.

Cost Side: Raw material prices fluctuated at low levels; production margins remained ample, offering no cost support.

This month, prices for the key raw material—acetone—fluctuated weakly with no upward momentum, leaving the cost side entirely devoid of support. Low raw material costs resulted in healthy production margins for MIBK, leaving manufacturers with no incentive to hold firm on prices. Coupled with weak market fundamentals, producers continued to lower prices in line with market trends, driving a sustained market downturn.

Market Outlook for July

According to SunSirs, the MIBK market trended downward in June due to weak conditions. Key bearish factors included overcapacity, the off-season for demand, a lack of cost support, and shrinking exports; these combined elements led to falling prices and sluggish trading. The industry is unlikely to see a surge in the short term, with price movements heavily dependent on market fundamentals. Moving forward, key areas to monitor include plant operating rates, the recovery of downstream demand, acetone feedstock prices, and changes in import and export data.

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