Recent spot market trends

Recently, the benchmark price of melamine tracked by SunSirs has exhibited overall weak volatility. From June 24 to 29, the price remained stable at 6,062.5 RMB/ton, trading within a narrow, sideways range with no significant fluctuations. However, on June 30, the market broke downward; the price dropped by 12.5 RMB/ton in a single day—a decline of 0.21%—bringing the spot benchmark price to 6,050 RMB/ton and setting a new low for the period.

Comparing month-over-month figures, SunSirs reported a benchmark price for melamine of 6,050.00 RMB/ton as of July 1, representing a 1.22% decline from the start of the previous month (6,125.00 RMB/ton). Prices for the upstream raw material, urea, weakened in tandem; the benchmark price for urea stood at 1,813.75 RMB/ton on July 1, down 0.34% month-on-month. This continued erosion of cost-side support has laid the groundwork for the recent sluggish performance of the melamine market.

Fundamentals

On the cost side, upstream urea prices weakened in tandem; urea prices edged down this month, leading to a marginal decline in melamine production costs. With cost support for producers weakening, there is less resistance to lowering ex-factory quotes; rather than driving price increases, the raw material side continues to exert significant downward pressure on spot prices.

Supply and Demand: Spot prices initially traded sideways, primarily because the market maintained a state of weak supply-demand equilibrium; factory inventories remained stable, and essential procurement from downstream sectors—such as sheet metal and coatings—held steady without any surge in large-volume orders. Subsequently, prices broke downward, reflecting persistently weakening end-user demand and a growing "wait-and-see" attitude downstream. As the pace of purchasing slowed and pressure on manufacturers to move stock increased slightly, they were compelled to lower quotes to stimulate transactions.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the pattern of weak melamine prices is unlikely to reverse, and there remains room for a slight decline.

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