I. SunSirs Benchmark Prices Across the Industry Chain (July 2)

Upstream Core Raw Materials (Key Cost Components for MAP Production)

Sulfur

On July 2, the average market price for granular sulfur at major ports was 8,960 RMB/ton. On July 1, the price at Zhenjiang Port was 9,000 RMB/ton (a single-day drop of 0.44%); the benchmark on June 1 was 10,114 RMB/ton (a monthly decline of 11.41%). While the resumption of US-Iran air traffic eased geopolitical speculation, port inventories remained at a historic low of 750,000 tons, providing solid price support at the bottom.

98% Industrial Sulfuric Acid

On July 2, the SunSirs benchmark price was 717.5 RMB/ton; on July 1, it was 702.5 RMB/ton (a single-day rise of 2.14%); on June 1, it was 1,945 RMB/ton (showing a significant monthly decline). Concentrated maintenance at phosphorus chemical plants across multiple regions and firm pricing for smelter-grade acid meant that the slight dip in sulfur prices did not drag down sulfuric acid prices.

Phosphate Rock

In major domestic production areas, the price for 30% grade ore (truck-loaded) ranged from 980 to 1,010 RMB/ton. The price was 995 RMB/ton in early June and remained high and stable throughout the month; policies restricting total mining output continued to tighten, keeping phosphate rock supply inelastic.

Liquid Ammonia / Urea (Nitrogen Sources)

On July 2, the SunSirs benchmark price for urea was 1,813.75 RMB/ton; on July 1, it was 1,814 RMB/ton (essentially flat); on June 1, it was 1,812 RMB/ton. Prices fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the month, with nitrogen fertilizer prices suppressed by the summer off-season for agricultural demand. Midstream Core Product: Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) (55% powdered grade is the mainstream)

On July 2, the  composite benchmark price was 4,523.33 RMB/ton; on July 1, it was 4,435 RMB/ton, marking a slight single-day increase of 1.99%; on June 1, it was 4,390 RMB/ton, reflecting a monthly rise of 3.04%. Regional price variations exist nationwide: ex-factory prices in Central China are 4,200–4,450 RMB/ton; delivered prices in East China are 4,520–4,550 RMB/ton; and prices in Southwest China are 4,250–4,350 RMB/ton. These price differentials are determined by logistics and the costs of supporting raw materials.

The market average price for 58% powdered MAP is 4,710 RMB/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day; the premium for high-phosphorus formulations driven by essential demand remains stable.

Downstream End Products

45% Sulfur-based Compound Fertilizer (15-15-15)

Ex-factory price on July 2: 3,400–3,700 RMB/ton; prices remained flat compared to July 1. Pre-sale quotes for autumn fertilizers continue to rise, as the cost of phosphate ammonium directly drives up the ex-factory price of compound fertilizers.

II. Complete Operational Logic of the Domestic MAP Spot Market (July 2)

1. Strong cost rigidity serves as the core price support.

Complete cost transmission chain: Geopolitical disruptions affecting Middle East sulfur → Sulfur prices surging to annual highs → Sulfuric acid production costs rising → Wet-process phosphoric acid prices increasing → MAP prices continuously pushed upward.

Although sulfur prices have retreated from the mid-June peak of 10,000 RMB/ton, current prices remain far above those of the same period in previous years. Coupled with production limits and high prices for phosphate rock—two raw materials that together account for over 70% of MAP production costs—companies relying on external raw material procurement remain in a loss-making state. Meanwhile, integrated mine-to-fertilizer enterprises maintain slight profitability by leveraging their own phosphate rock resources, resulting in a unified industry-wide determination to support price levels.

Sulfuric acid prices bucked the trend and rose in July, further reinforcing the cost floor; consequently, even with sluggish downstream demand, factories lack the margin to significantly lower prices to move inventory.

2. Supply-side: Proactive production control alleviates oversupply pressure

As of June 2026, the average operating rate of the mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) industry stood at just 48.98%, down 11.91 percentage points year-on-year. Nationwide, 17 production units were either permanently shut down or undergoing periodic maintenance, resulting in a total idle capacity of 3.46 million tons per year.

Core corporate strategies: Amidst cost-price inversion, companies proactively reduced operating loads, prioritized the fulfillment of existing long-term contracts, and limited spot market supply; factory inventories were kept low, and low-price dumping was rejected. Following the arrival of small quantities of sulfur at market-parity prices in July, only leading integrated enterprises slightly raised their operating rates, while small and medium-sized plants maintained low operating levels; consequently, the circulating volume of commodity MAP saw no significant increase.

3. Demand-side: Seasonal lull; autumn fertilizer expectations provide a floor, though actual orders remain weak

Short-term headwinds

The application of top-dressing fertilizers for summer rice and fertilizers for fruits and vegetables has concluded. Domestic grassroots channels are clearing inventories, and compound fertilizer plants are maintaining extremely low operating rates (32%–38%), purchasing MAP only in small quantities to meet immediate needs; bulk locking and early stockpiling have completely ceased, resulting in a market characterized by "firm quotes but scarce actual orders."

Traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach; while they anticipate that prices are unlikely to drop sharply before the autumn fertilizer season begins, they are unwilling to build large inventories early. Spot transactions are sporadic, and overall market trading activity is sluggish.

Medium-to-long-term support (Key market outlook drivers)

Full-scale stockpiling of autumn fertilizers for wheat and corn will commence in August and September; compound fertilizer plants will engage in concentrated purchasing of high-phosphorus raw materials, creating market expectations of future price increases. Meanwhile, the peak crop-growing season continues in South Asia and Southeast Asia, and stable domestic MAP export orders are absorbing excess domestic capacity, indicating clear growth potential for future demand.

4. Daily trading and regional differentiation (July 2)

Nationwide MAP quotes remained generally stable, with only a few traders in East and North China offering slight price concessions to attract long-term contracts driven by essential demand. Producers in the Southwest—a region with its own phosphate rock resources—enjoyed lower costs and offered lower ex-factory prices; conversely, producers in Central and East China, who rely entirely on purchased sulfur and phosphate rock, quoted higher ex-factory prices. Regional price differentials remained stable. Factories are prioritizing the delivery of pre-existing orders; newly signed orders are largely negotiated on a case-by-case basis rather than subject to uniform, large-scale price adjustments, reflecting a balanced tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market forces.

III. Global Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Market Landscape

Overseas Market Situation

Supply Side: Sulfur exports from the Middle East are restricted, and phosphate fertilizer plants in Europe and the US continue to operate at low capacity due to high raw material costs. Consequently, overseas supply has contracted, increasing reliance on Chinese imports. Russia has extended its sulfur export ban through the end of the year, making it unlikely that the global tight balance of sulfur resources will shift in the short term.

Demand Side: Major agricultural nations—including India, Indonesia, and Brazil—are expanding grain cultivation, maintaining stable demand for phosphate fertilizer imports. Export channels for domestic MAP remain open, serving as a crucial buffer for balancing domestic supply and demand; however, periodic domestic export controls limit large-scale outflows to prevent excessive depletion of domestic stocks, ensuring sufficient supply for the autumn fertilizer season.

Cost Differentials: Overseas producers lack integrated phosphate rock and sulfur facilities, resulting in significantly higher MAP production costs compared to domestic integrated enterprises; thus, domestic products retain a sustained global cost-performance advantage.

Domestic Market Structural Characteristics

Production Capacity Divergence: Leading integrated mining-and-fertilizer enterprises control 62% of production capacity; possessing complete upstream integration (phosphate rock and sulfuric acid), they are resilient against rising raw material costs. Conversely, small and medium-sized plants lacking such integration face severe losses and long-term elimination, driving continued industry consolidation.

Demand Bifurcation: Demand for traditional compound fertilizers fluctuates seasonally, whereas the new energy iron phosphate industry continues to expand. This sector steadily consumes wet-process phosphoric acid and intermediate phosphate salts, diverting raw material supplies away from MAP production and altering the long-term demand structure of the phosphorus chemical industry.

Policy Constraints: Three key policies—total volume controls on phosphate rock mining, sulfuric acid export bans, and dynamic adjustments to fertilizer exports—constrain supply and export pacing, thereby establishing a price floor for domestic MAP.

IV. Price Transmission Logic Across the Entire Industry Chain

Tier 1: Sulfur and Phosphate Rock (Upstream Raw Materials)

Geopolitical conflicts and sulfur demand from the new energy sector caused sulfur prices to fluctuate at high levels throughout the year. Meanwhile, phosphate rock prices remained stable due to resource scarcity and production limits. Together, these two raw materials set the cost ceiling for MAP, with even minor fluctuations in raw material costs transmitting downward to the finished product. In late June, sulfur prices dipped slightly, but sulfuric acid prices rose against the trend, offsetting some of the cost-side bullish factors; consequently, MAP prices saw only a modest increase. Tier 2: Sulfuric Acid, Wet-Process Phosphoric Acid (Intermediate Products)

Sulfur is the primary feedstock for sulfuric acid, and its price fluctuations directly determine production costs. Wet-process phosphoric acid is produced by combining sulfuric acid with phosphate rock; its price is inextricably linked to these two upstream raw materials and serves as the primary cost driver for monoammonium phosphate (MAP). Currently, sulfuric acid prices are rising against the broader trend, further driving up the production costs of phosphate fertilizers.

Tier 3: Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) (Core Intermediate Fertilizer)

With rigid raw material costs and producers controlling output to support prices, MAP tends to resist downward movement; however, weak demand during the off-season limits the upside. The market is characterized by a "cost-supported but sluggish" pattern, preventing it from surging in tandem with raw material costs.

Tier 4: Downstream Compound Fertilizers and New Energy-Grade Iron Phosphate

Compound Fertilizers: MAP accounts for 35% of the raw materials in sulfur-based compound fertilizers. While rising MAP prices directly push up ex-factory prices for compound fertilizers, regulated grain procurement prices prevent manufacturers from effectively passing costs on to farmers. Consequently, processing margins remain squeezed, leading to cautious purchasing behavior.

Iron Phosphate: Driven by rigid demand from the new energy sector—unaffected by agricultural seasonality—the steady demand for phosphoric acid and phosphate salts tightens the overall supply of circulating phosphorus chemicals, indirectly supporting the phosphate fertilizer market.

V. Market Outlook Forecast by Phase

The market remains in a lull between the end of the summer fertilizer season and the start of the autumn season, with compound fertilizer plants operating at low capacity. Despite a slight pullback in sulfur prices, high sulfuric acid prices provide a cost floor; combined with producer-led output controls, MAP prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 4,480–4,560 RMB/tonne. Upside and downside potential remain limited, and trading activity continues to be sluggish.

Key Variables: Volume of sulfur shipments arriving at ports, the pace of domestic phosphate fertilizer plant restarts, and the intensity of sporadic restocking by compound fertilizer plants.

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