Price trends

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of 1# tin ingots in East China fluctuated at high levels before declining this month (June 1–29). The average market price stood at 430,170 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and fell to 388,650 RMB/ton by June 29, representing a decrease of 9.65%.

Macroeconomic Outlook

The prevailing macroeconomic tone in June leaned bearish. While the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, the language in its statement turned hawkish; the "dot plot" revealed that half of the committee members supported at least one rate hike before the end of the year, and the core PCE forecast for 2026 was raised to 3.3%. Consequently, the US Dollar Index trended upward, placing base metals under general pressure. In late June, US technology stocks suffered a sharp sell-off, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging nearly 10% in a single week; as tin is a commodity highly sensitive to the health of the semiconductor sector, market sentiment regarding the metal faced a double blow.

Market News

The resumption of production in Myanmar’s Wa State continues to lag behind expectations; road repairs are approximately 70% complete, and monthly output has recovered to 40%–50% of pre-ban levels. Indonesia’s tin ingot exports fell by about 15% year-on-year from January to April, while mining area conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo continue to cause disruptions. Although tin was dubbed a "computing power metal" earlier this month, consecutive declines during the final days of the month indicate that bullish supply-side factors have already been fully priced in, shifting market focus toward macroeconomic conditions and the demand side.

Fundamentals

Inventory trends have diverged significantly. SHFE tin inventories surged by 4,064 tonnes to 12,358 tonnes during the week of June 12 (a weekly increase of nearly 50%) before retreating to 9,286 tonnes later in the month; meanwhile, LME tin inventories remained relatively low at approximately 8,775 tonnes—reflecting a simultaneous buildup of domestic stocks and a drawdown of overseas inventories. On the demand side, June marks the traditional off-season for consumption; operating rates at solder manufacturers hovered around 74%, and downstream willingness to purchase at prices exceeding 400,000 RMB/ton remained weak. Although demand for AI servers provides medium- to long-term support, the volume of new monthly consumption is not yet sufficient to fully offset the decline in traditional demand during the off-season.

Comprehensive analysis

Q3 Outlook: Macroeconomic headwinds (driven by Federal Reserve policy expectations) and supply-side support (slow production resumption in Myanmar and export restrictions in Indonesia) have entered a period of stalemate. Demand remains in a seasonal lull, with limited room for operating rates to recover. The core price fluctuation range is projected to be 385,000–445,000 RMB/ton; an upward breakout would require a shift in the macro environment or an unexpected contraction in supply.

Global tin ore supply lacks elasticity, while emerging demand—driven by AI computing power, advanced packaging, and photovoltaic ribbon—continues to expand; this tight supply-demand balance provides a floor for prices. Unless supply bottlenecks are resolved, the long-term trend of rising tin prices remains unchanged.

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