In June 2026, the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) market trended downward amidst volatility; while industry profitability saw a slight recovery, the overall weak tone remained unchanged. Data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system indicates that as of June 30, the price of SBR in the East China market stood at 12,375 RMB/ton, a decline of 16.99% from the 14,908 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the month.
At the start of the month, easing international geopolitical tensions caused Brent crude oil prices to retreat from their highs, dragging down the prices of butadiene and styrene and causing the cost support from raw materials to collapse. According to SunSirs data, the price of butadiene fell 24.86% from 11,800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 8,866 RMB/ton by June 30, while the price of styrene dropped 17.35% from 8,844 RMB/ton to 7,310 RMB/ton over the same period.
The average operating rate of the SBR industry in June was 73.68%. Qilu Petrochemical resumed production ahead of schedule, Shenhua Chemical operated at full capacity, and multiple refining and chemical enterprises raised their production loads, leading to an increase in market supply. Although maintenance work at Yangzi Petrochemical resulted in a localized reduction in output, this was insufficient to offset the overall increase in supply; consequently, social inventories accumulated slightly, suppressing the potential for a price rebound.
Demand in the tire replacement market remained sluggish in June, leading to lower operating rates for semi-steel tires and a backlog of finished product inventories; factories purchased only small quantities to meet immediate needs, with no significant restocking activity. Compounding this, EU anti-dumping measures against Chinese tires and overseas geopolitical disruptions caused a decline in tire export orders, prompting downstream buyers to press for lower prices. While demand for high-end solution-polymerized SBR (SSBR) used in new energy vehicle (NEV) original equipment remained resilient, its limited market share meant it could not drive overall consumption. Natural rubber prices also weakened, and the price advantage failed to translate into a substantial increase in purchasing volume, resulting in a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment across the market. As of late June 2026, finished-product inventories for domestic all-steel tire production lines had risen for three consecutive weeks to a level equivalent to 41.1 days of supply, while inventories for semi-steel tire lines had increased for eight consecutive weeks to 46.9 days.
Overall, the styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) market is expected to remain weak with fluctuating prices in the short term, with limited upside potential. On the supply side, the industry operating rate is projected to rise to 80%; the mid-month restart of the Yangzi facility will further increase supply, making it difficult to alleviate inventory pressure. On the demand side, July remains an off-season; downstream production schedules show no significant uptick, and procurement continues to be characterized by small-volume orders. Regarding costs, there is currently no basis for a strong rebound in crude oil or butadiene prices, so SBR prices are expected to fluctuate within a low range.
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