Since the second quarter, the China supply of imported soybeans has been sufficient, the output of soybean meal has been continuously increasing, and the trend of stockpiling is difficult to reverse in the short term. However, the drought in the growth period of US soybeans, the expectation of continued low crushing profit of oil mills and other positive factors have limited the downside space of the futures market.

Since the end of June, the price of the main soybean meal contract has bottomed out and rebounded, and the market as a whole has shown a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with limited room for rebound.

US soybeans focus on planting area of new works

Corn-soybean ratio is weak, and farmers’ willingness to expand soybean planting has increased. S&P Global Energy expects that the planting area of US soybeans in 2026 will be 85.3 million acres, higher than the 84.7 million acres intended by the USDA in March and the previous market estimate of 85 million acres. Currently, the market is focusing on the USDA planting area report to be released on June 30. If the planting area of US soybeans exceeds 85 million acres, it will strengthen the expectation of a bumper harvest for the new crop, which will temporarily suppress the US soybean futures. If the area is lower than expected or the drought rating continues to deteriorate, it will trigger a weather-related bull market.

South American soybean supply is expected to remain loose.

Low prices in South America continue to suppress import costs, and the sluggish sales of US soybeans reflect a shift in global purchasing focus, making it difficult for large-scale orders to China to be realized in the short term.

The USDA export sales report shows that for the week ending June 18th, the net increase in soybean exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year was 455,400 tons, a 50% increase from the 4-week average; for the 2026/2027 marketing year, the sales of new soybeans was 902,200 tons, of which private exporters sold 132,000 tons to China. However, at the current 13% tariff level, China does not have the conditions to import large quantities of US soybeans on a commercial scale, and actual purchases are mainly from Brazilian sources.

The 2025/2026 soybean harvest in Brazil was completed in mid-June, with a high-yield established, and the export volume of Brazilian soybeans in June is estimated to be as high as 15.31 million tons. According to Steel Union statistics, as of June 19, 6.688 million tons of Brazilian soybeans were shipped to China from ports in June, a significant increase of 2.187 million tons compared to the previous week, with a total plan of 6.106 million tons of ships to China, and there is still a strong guarantee for the arrival volume in July. The export rhythm of Argentine soybeans is relatively stable, and the total volume is limited by the China crushing demand, and the proportion of supply to China is not large. Overall, South American soybeans are at the end of the export peak, but the huge shipment volume ensures that the arrival volume in China in the third quarter remains at a high level.

The trend of soybean meal stockpiling is difficult to reverse in the short term.

Since the second quarter, China imported soybean supplies have remained ample, soybean meal output has continued to rise, and the inventory build-up trend will be hard to reverse in the short term. According to statistics from SteelLian, 9.646 million tons of imported soybeans arrived in May, hitting a record high for the same period, with June arrivals expected to reach the ten-million-ton mark. Against this backdrop, the weekly crushing volume of full-sample enterprises climbed from 1.6246 million tons in early May to 2.5135 million tons in the week ending June 19, marking the highest level so far this year. Soybean meal inventory accumulation has accelerated; full-sample enterprises’ stocks surged from 2.91 million tons on May 15—the year’s lowest—to 7.21 million tons as of June 19. At present, oil mills hold sufficient soybean inventories and crushing margins remain decent, so mills lack incentives to voluntarily cut operating rates in the near term.

Terminal demand has shown weakness.

Since June, the overall demand for soybean meal has been weak, with a focus on spot consumption. In the breeding sector, the pork price has been continuously sluggish, with the national average price of pork on June 24th at 9.42 RMB per kilogram, the loss of self-breeding and self-rearing increased to 268 RMB per head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding increased to 313 RMB per head. The deep loss of breeding suppressed the enthusiasm for replenishing, the trend of reducing the number of breeding sows continued, and the demand for pig feed decreased. Poultry feed only maintained the basic demand, lacking incremental support. Overall, there is no active restocking power at the terminal, and the breeding loss suppresses the medium and long-term demand for soybean meal. Only seasonal aquaculture provides a slight support, but it is also affected by the substitution of rapeseed meal and miscellaneous meals, and the demand side finds it difficult to digest the high soybean meal inventory.

Looking ahead, it is expected that short-term soybean meal prices will fluctuate within a wide range. A large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in June and July, and the high crushing volume will promote the increase of soybean meal output. However, the weak demand for terminal breeding and the substitution of miscellaneous meals will lead to a loose spot market, which will suppress the soybean meal futures. Nevertheless, the factors such as the expectation of drought in the growth period of US soybeans and the low crushing profit of oil mills will limit the downward space of the futures.

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