Price trend

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, prices for wire rods and rebar rose initially and then fell during June. By the end of the month, the average price of HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region stood at 3,126.34 RMB/ton, down 2.47% from the beginning of the month; the average price of HPB300 high-speed wire rod was 3,330 RMB/ton, down 1.55% from the start of the month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic market for rebar and wire rods in June 2026 exhibited a trend of "rising initially before falling, with the overall price level shifting downward." Price monitoring by SunSirs indicates that the market stabilized and rebounded briefly early in the month; however, from mid-to-late June, prices came under downward pressure due to intensifying supply-demand imbalances, reflecting distinct characteristics of the off-season.

Early June (June 1–12): Cost support drives a modest rebound. At the beginning of the month, spot prices stabilized and recovered briefly, buoyed by cost support from the implementation of a sixth round of coke price hikes and positive momentum from reduced output at integrated steel mills. By June 12, the average price of HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region had risen to approximately 3,194 RMB/ton—a slight increase from the start of the month—while the average price for HPB300 wire rod stood at around 3,382 RMB/ton. However, market trading was driven primarily by essential demand, and the momentum for the rebound was clearly insufficient.

Mid-to-late June (June 13–29): Supply-demand imbalances worsened, driving prices lower. As the market entered the traditional off-season, construction demand remained suppressed by the "plum rain" season in the south and high temperatures in the north, while supply-side pressure intensified beyond expectations. In mid-June, the average daily steel output of major steel enterprises rose by 5.6% month-on-month, while inventories surged by 6.1%, resulting in a simultaneous increase in both production and stock levels. Hit by these factors, spot prices turned downward, and the main futures contract fell below the 3,100 RMB/ton mark, reflecting bearish market sentiment. By June 26, the average price of rebar had dropped to approximately 3,129.5 RMB/ton, and wire rod to 3,330 RMB/ton—effectively erasing the gains recorded earlier in the month.

Factors affecting price

In June, both the weekly production and total inventory of wire rods and rebar declined.

Supply: This month, bearish signals from the supply side have converged to become the primary factor suppressing steel prices. Regarding output, statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) show that in mid-June 2026, the daily output of finished steel products from key steel enterprises reached 2.048 million tonnes—a month-on-month increase of 5.6%. This growth rate significantly outpaced that of crude steel (+0.8%) and pig iron (+0.7%), indicating a marked intensification of production resumption in the rolling stage and a rapid release of finished steel supply. From a longer-term perspective, although domestic rebar production fell by 10.5% year-on-year in May, it rebounded rapidly in June, with short-term supply elasticity exceeding market expectations.

Regarding inventory, a clear trend of accumulation has emerged. By mid-June, steel inventories at major steel enterprises reached 17.9 million tonnes, marking increases of 6.1% from the previous ten-day period and 10.4% year-on-year. While inventory pressure was previously concentrated in the distribution sector, steel mills are now experiencing involuntary stock accumulation; this reflects weak downstream purchasing appetite and an obstructed flow of finished products from mills to end-users.

Regarding demand, the seasonal slowdown intensified in June; with "essential demand" remaining weak, the overall demand side continued to soften, offering insufficient support for prices. This trend is evident in two respects: First, seasonal constraints were significant—June saw the "plum rain" season in the south and high temperatures in the north, noticeably hindering outdoor construction progress. Consequently, end-user procurement was driven primarily by essential needs, with the market settling into a pattern where low-priced goods moved reasonably well while high-priced transactions struggled. Second, apparent consumption continued to decline; high-frequency weekly data showed a week-on-week drop in consumption across the five major product categories—including a decrease in the apparent consumption of rebar. The magnitude of the decline in demand continued to outpace the scale of supply adjustments, resulting in a further weakening of the supply-demand balance.

Regarding the market: Sentiment has turned pessimistic; the expected sales price index for the wholesale steel market in June fell to 43.01%—dropping below the 50% boom-bust threshold—indicating a shift from a bullish to a bearish outlook for the future market.

July Market Outlook:

Inventory: A potential turnaround in inventory levels. If supply-side production cuts coincide with a marginal recovery in demand, the currently accumulating inventory could reach an inflection point—shifting from accumulation to depletion—by mid-to-late July, thereby improving market expectations regarding fundamentals.

Demand: Potential for marginal seasonal improvement. As the rainy season ends and extreme heat eases slightly in late July, some deferred essential demand and localized "rush-to-complete" demand are expected to materialize. Activity in end-market transactions may pick up compared to June, providing a floor for spot prices.

Supply: Accelerated market-driven supply rationalization to alleviate inventory pressure. Industry profitability is currently highly divergent; production of construction materials via electric arc furnaces (EAF) and cold-rolled products has fallen into the red, while gross margins for blast-furnace rebar remain low. Faced with low margins or even losses, steel mills will likely become increasingly willing to voluntarily undertake maintenance and cut production. Clear signs of a decline in output during July would effectively relieve the pressure caused by the simultaneous rise in production and inventory—a crucial prerequisite for improving the supply-demand balance.

Market Outlook

In summary, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the steel market in July will enter a critical transition phase, shifting from a pattern of "weak reality" to "strong expectations" regarding supply and demand. While short-term fundamentals remain under pressure, expectations of supply contraction in the medium term and marginal improvements in seasonal demand are building momentum for a rebound. Strategically, it is advisable to closely monitor the actual implementation of maintenance and production cuts at steel mills, as well as whether social inventories reach a turning point toward destocking; these two indicators will serve as key signals for determining whether the market can truly stabilize and rebound. The prevailing view is that, following the full digestion of bearish factors associated with the off-season, steel prices may see a window for a short-term stabilization and rebound during the latter half of July.

Rebar prices are currently positioned in the middle of their annual range, leaving significant room for fluctuation; while a downward trend is expected in the short term, the likelihood of volatility remains high.

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