Price trend

Last week (June 22-28), market prices for polyester staple fiber continued to trend downward. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic average market price for polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) stood at 7,452 RMB/ton as of June 28, marking a 0.91% decline from the beginning of the week.

Market analysis

On the cost side, the geopolitical premium on crude oil has dissipated; as of June 25, the settlement price for the August WTI crude oil futures contract stood at $71.92 per barrel, while the September Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $75.50 per barrel. With geopolitical tensions easing and navigation risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz subsiding, international crude oil prices have undergone a rapid correction from their highs.

Asian PX and PTA prices weakened in tandem with crude oil, and the domestic PTA market trended downward throughout last week (June 22-28). As of June 28, the average spot price in East China stood at 5,734 RMB/ton, a decline of 5.10% from the beginning of the week. Regarding supply, the market saw a tug-of-war between maintenance activities and production restarts, with low inventory levels providing only weak support. Industry operating rates remained low at around 64%, while factory inventories continued to decline, resulting in low spot inventory levels.

On the demand side, the market remains in the traditional June off-season for textiles, characterized by persistent sluggishness and a lack of growth drivers. Operating rates for looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are low, and inventories of greige fabric are accumulating. Downstream orders for yarn have weakened; price quotes for 100% polyester yarn are being lowered, with terms negotiated on a case-by-case basis and bulk discounts available, while distributors largely adopt a wait-and-see approach. Faced with high inventory levels, yarn mills are prioritizing destocking and show little inclination to raise prices.

Market Outlook:

Analysts at SunSirs believe that, in the short term, crude oil price fluctuations remain the dominant factor. With cost support weakening and the textile industry entering its traditional off-season, the combined impact of these bearish factors suggests that polyester staple fiber prices will continue to fluctuate with a downward bias.

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