According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the xylene market saw a slight rise last week; however, the benchmark price fell from 6,151 RMB/ton on June 19 to 5,901 RMB/ton on June 26, marking a decline of 4.06% over the period.

Last week, the domestic xylene market continued its deep downward trend, with price levels shifting significantly lower. Trading activity remained sluggish, and the market overall was in a state of weak adjustment. Under the combined pressure of three bearish factors—persistently weakening costs, supply-side oversupply, and weak demand during the off-season—the market lacked any upward momentum amidst the tug-of-war between long and short positions, facing significant downward pressure.

Cost Perspective: Crude Oil Weakened Amid Volatility; Support Remained Insufficient

Last week, international crude oil prices generally trended downward with some volatility; while there were slight rebounds on a few trading days driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, overall price action remained weak, failing to provide robust cost support to the paraxylene market. Aromatics futures tracked crude oil movements, trading mostly in bearish territory and unable to revitalize confidence in the spot market. Crude prices repeatedly breached key support levels during the week, driving down raw material costs; consequently, petrochemical producers continued to lower their quotes, further depressing the baseline for spot market prices. Although crude oil posted a slight gain at month-end and aromatics futures strengthened during night trading, these moves offered only a brief boost to market sentiment; they failed to reverse the underlying cost weakness or provide a meaningful floor for prices. On June 25, the settlement price for U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $71.92 per barrel, while the settlement price for the September contract of Brent crude oil futures was $75.50 per barrel.

Supply Side:

Domestic refinery operating rates remain stable; the number of xylene units undergoing maintenance last week was low, and major producers maintained steady operations, ensuring a continued abundance of market supply. Supplies are plentiful across key production regions—including East, South, and North China—with smooth inter-regional flow and no signs of significant supply tightness; independent refineries are moving product at a steady pace, and overall market inventory levels remain on the high side of reasonable. While pressure from port inventories is manageable, sluggish end-user demand has slowed the pace of inventory depletion, exerting implicit downward pressure on spot prices. Meanwhile, export activity remains subdued due to weak international purchasing interest and sluggish overseas sales channels; the inability to effectively divert domestic surplus supplies has further exacerbated the oversupply situation in the domestic market, continuously limiting the potential for a price rebound.

Demand Side:

Last week, the industry remained in a traditional off-season for consumption; the pace of downstream demand release was sluggish, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed, with purchasing largely limited to immediate, essential needs. Operating rates in end-user sectors remained low, and downstream order intake was insufficient to drive volume purchasing, leading most small and medium-sized enterprises to maintain low-inventory strategies. Although there was a slight uptick in downstream willingness to restock at lower price points following a period of declining prices, most transactions involved small, short-term orders; overall purchasing momentum remained weak, failing to revitalize market trading activity. Meanwhile, price spreads between related product categories were unremarkable, and limited profit margins further dampened downstream enthusiasm for bulk purchasing, leaving the demand side unable to provide robust support to the market.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the xylene market continues to fluctuate at low levels; there is currently no clear momentum for a rebound, and prices are unlikely to break free from their weak trend in the near future. Uncertainties regarding crude oil costs persist, supply remains ample, and demand shows little sign of picking up during the off-season; consequently, prices may see further slight declines under these multiple bearish factors. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to crude oil price trends and refinery maintenance schedules. As the off-season gradually draws to a close, downstream demand is expected to recover steadily; combined with a gradual adjustment of market fundamentals, the xylene market is projected to see prices stabilize and potentially undergo a moderate recovery.

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