According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic toluene market experienced a fluctuating downward trend from June 19 to June 26, 2026. In the Shandong region, the market price dropped from 6,151 RMB/ton to 5,834.33 RMB/ton, marking a decline of 5.15% over the period.

Last week, the domestic toluene market showed an overall weak trend, with the center of gravity for prices steadily shifting downward. Trading activity was sluggish, and the market remained in a state of weak adjustment; amidst the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, the market lacked the momentum to rise, facing significant downward pressure. Overall, the market continued its weak decline, with prices trending lower and trading remaining subdued.

Cost Side: Crude Oil Prices Fluctuated Downward; Cost Support Remained Weak

Last week, international crude oil prices generally trended downward amidst fluctuations, with only isolated sessions seeing slight rebounds driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions; overall volatility was subdued, leaving cost support for the toluene market persistently weak. Aromatics futures tracked crude oil movements, trading with a bearish bias for much of the week and failing to boost confidence in the spot market. Crude prices repeatedly breached key support levels, driving down toluene production costs; petrochemical producers continued to lower their official list prices, further depressing the market's spot price baseline. Although crude oil posted a slight gain at month-end and aromatics futures strengthened during night trading, these moves provided only a fleeting boost to market sentiment and could not reverse the underlying cost weakness, offering insufficient price support. As of June 25, the settlement price for U.S. WTI crude oil futures stood at $71.92 per barrel, while the settlement price for the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $75.50 per barrel.

Supply Side: Ample Overall Supply and Slow Inventory Depletion

Domestic refinery operating rates remain stable; few toluene units underwent maintenance last week, and major producers maintained steady operations, ensuring a continued abundance of market supply. Supplies are plentiful in key production regions such as East and South China, with smooth inter-regional flow and no signs of significant supply tightness. While pressure on port inventories remains manageable, sluggish demand has resulted in a slow pace of inventory depletion, exerting implicit downward pressure on prices. Export activity is subdued due to weak international demand and sluggish outbound sales; the inability to divert domestic supplies to export markets further exacerbates the situation of oversupply within the domestic market.

Demand Side: Sluggish Off-Season Demand and Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment

Last week, the industry remained in the traditional off-season for consumption; the release of downstream demand was slow, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed, with market activity largely driven by essential, on-demand purchasing. Operating rates in end-user industries remained low, and order volumes were insufficient, resulting in weak procurement demand for toluene and a lack of support from bulk buying. Following a period of consecutive price declines, interest in restocking at lower price points picked up slightly; however, this was mostly limited to small, short-term orders, and overall procurement intensity remained weak, with little improvement in the willingness of end-user markets to make purchases. The spread between pure benzene and toluene remained narrow, limiting the upside potential for toluene prices; this further dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, keeping market trading activity at a low level.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the toluene market is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels; there is currently no clear momentum for a rebound, and prices are unlikely to break free from their prevailing weakness. Uncertainties regarding crude oil costs persist, supply remains ample, and demand shows little sign of picking up during the off-season; consequently, prices may still edge slightly lower under these multiple bearish pressures. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to crude oil price trends. As the off-season gradually draws to a close, downstream demand is expected to recover steadily. Coupled with a gradual adjustment in market fundamentals, the toluene market is projected to halt its decline and potentially see a moderate recovery.

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