According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, prices for both softwood pulp and hardwood pulp maintained a downward trend throughout June, with the rate of decline accelerating towards the end of the month. On June 26, the average market price for softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,783.33 RMB/ton, a 4.01% decrease from the average price on June 1. On the same day, the average market price for hardwood pulp in Shandong was 4,450 RMB/ton, down 2.2% from June 1.

Regarding supply: Overseas quotes for softwood pulp saw slight reductions in June; overseas mills proactively lowered prices to boost sales and increased shipments to China. Low-priced Russian softwood pulp continued to flow into the domestic market, directly driving down import costs and creating room for further price declines. In contrast, overseas quotes for hardwood pulp remained stable; shipment volumes contracted, and prices demonstrated greater resilience. A large volume of overseas shipments arrived at ports in mid-June, resulting in ample spot market supply and significant selling pressure from traders holding inventory. Although pulp mills in Northern Europe and North America began their annual scheduled maintenance in June and July—theoretically tightening global softwood supply—the actual capacity reduction has not yet materialized. Consequently, this did not alleviate the domestic oversupply issue in June; the bullish factor remained merely a long-term expectation and failed to support price strength in the near term.

Domestic port data: Port inventories remained high throughout June, with an extremely slow pace of destocking. As of June 25, inventory levels at major Chinese pulp ports stood at 2.323 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (or 0.2%) from the previous period. While there was slight destocking for two consecutive weeks, the rate of reduction was very slow.

Regarding demand: June is traditionally a slow season for the papermaking industry. End-user consumption was weak, and the industry limited pulp procurement to essential needs only, with no proactive restocking activity. For cultural paper, sluggish orders for printing and educational materials have led to high finished-product inventories at mills; falling prices and production losses have prompted mills to voluntarily cut output and reduce consumption of coniferous pulp, acting as a key factor dragging down coniferous pulp prices. Pulp consumption for tissue paper has seen limited growth, providing only slight support for hardwood pulp prices without driving overall demand. Operating rates for white paperboard remain relatively stable, but weak domestic demand offers little stimulus for wood pulp, failing to offset the demand shortfall in the cultural paper sector.

Regarding futures: The main contract fluctuated within a narrow range with brief, minor rebounds in early June. However, bearish supply-demand factors intensified during the middle and latter parts of the month, causing the market to retreat continuously. As of June 26, the main pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 4,652 RMB/tonne, closed at 4,616 RMB/tonne, and hit a high of 4,678 RMB/tonne; trading volume stood at 248,300 lots, with open interest at 427,500 lots. The market trended downward with fluctuations throughout the month, with the price center steadily shifting lower.

Wood pulp analysts at SunSirs believe the current loose supply-demand balance in the wood pulp market is irreversible. Prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate weakly; coniferous pulp retains some room for a slight decline, while hardwood pulp's downside is limited by support from overseas market prices. A significant rebound would require the end of the off-season, a wave of restocking by paper mills, or substantial production cuts by overseas pulp mills. In the short term, spot wood pulp prices are likely to maintain the weak trend seen in June, hovering at low levels with limited fluctuation.

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