According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, MTBE prices fell from 5,427 RMB/ton to 5,037 RMB/ton between June 22 and June 26. This represents a decline of 7.19% over the period, a month-on-month drop of 23.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.62%. The domestic MTBE market experienced a volatile decline. Following the Dragon Boat Festival, demand returned to a sluggish, stable state. Coupled with the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a pullback in international crude oil prices, support from both costs and market sentiment weakened; manufacturers faced pressure to move inventory and offered further price concessions, causing MTBE prices to drop again.
Cost Side: Regarding crude oil, international prices fell sharply. Key bearish factors included a significant easing of US-Iran tensions, continued improvement in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and plans by oil-producing nations like Iraq to accelerate production increases—all of which exerted pressure on the oil market. As of June 25, the settlement price for the September Brent crude oil futures contract stood at $75.50 per barrel.
Demand Side: Downstream, the expectation of further declines in international oil prices and a projected sharp drop in domestic retail price caps for refined oil products created a bearish market sentiment. Refineries focused primarily on clearing inventory. Meanwhile, a lack of holiday-driven demand and persistent rainfall in many regions reduced travel rates, leading to poor overall sales performance at retail gas stations; most station operators maintained low-to-moderate purchasing and sales volumes, resulting in a weak domestic gasoline market. The MTBE demand side was influenced by bearish factors.
Supply Side: The shutdown of the Haierxi unit in Henan will impact next week's output, and Shenghong Refining & Chemical has a planned shutdown, suggesting potential reductions in resource supply. The MTBE supply side was influenced by bullish factors.
As of the close on June 25, the Asian MTBE market closing price was down $8.26/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore prices settling at $736.36–$738.36/ton. The European MTBE market closing price rose by $35.75/ton from the previous trading day, with FOB ARA prices settling at $974.74–$975.24/ton. The US MTBE closing price fell by $7.61/tonne from the previous trading day, with the FOB Gulf Coast price settling at $1,096.03–$1,096.38/tonne (309.47–309.57 cents/gallon).
Market Outlook: While feedstock prices have retreated, the pace of their decline has been slower than that of MTBE, maintaining significant cost pressure. Supply remains stable, but market participants remain cautious due to weak end-user demand; coupled with the likelihood of a bearish trend in international crude oil prices, analysts at SunSirs anticipate that the MTBE market will primarily undergo a period of consolidation.
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