According to monitoring by the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the market for #1 tin ingots in East China declined this week; the average market price fell by 6.64%, dropping from 423,750 RMB/ton on June 17 to 395,620 RMB/ton by June 24.

Since June 2026, Shanghai tin prices have experienced a sustained decline. On June 8, the dominant Shanghai tin contract plunged 6.74%, closing at 398,000 RMB/ton; it fell another 4.1% on June 23, and dropped 3.64% on June 24 to close at 395,250 RMB/ton. This downturn is the result of multiple factors converging within the same timeframe.

Macroeconomic Factors

Macroeconomic factors constitute the primary source of downward pressure. Stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data for May has sharply heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, driving the US Dollar Index to a 13-month high and placing broad pressure on US dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, sharp declines in the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index have directly impacted demand expectations for "computing power metals," causing the AI ​​narrative—which previously supported tin prices—to waver temporarily.

Supply and Demand:

On the supply side, tin concentrate imports rose by 17% month-on-month in May—defying expectations of a production restart in Myanmar—while successive increases in processing fees indicate an easing of raw material shortages. However, LME tin inventories (8,825 tonnes) and SHFE inventories (9,286 tonnes) remain at historically low levels; this fragile supply elasticity provides a core floor for prices. On the demand side, consumption is weighed down by the traditional off-season, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream buyers.

Inventory Perspective

Inventories are at historically low levels: both LME and SHFE stockpiles are declining in tandem, and global visible tin inventories have dropped to historic lows. With inventories this low, any supply-side disruption could trigger a rebound.

Comprehensive Analysis

In the medium term, extremely low inventories and supply-side constraints will provide a floor for tin prices, which are expected to remain range-bound with significant volatility.

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