According to Sina Finance, shipping rates for routes to the US West Coast and East Coast have been steadily rising.

The latest Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that as of June 18, the index stood at 3,121.69 points—an increase of 136.47 points from the previous period—surpassing the 3,000-point mark. This marks the eighth consecutive week of SCFI gains since April.

Why are ocean freight rates skyrocketing before the traditional peak season for foreign trade?

Regarding US routes, export order volumes to the US have been climbing since the second quarter of this year, particularly due to strong demand for restocking in the outdoor goods category. Clients are ramping up inventory levels based on actual conditions; shipping schedules from late June to mid-July are already filling up, and some shipping companies are restricting the release of cargo space.

From a global perspective, Wang Guowen, Director of the Institute of Logistics and Supply Chain Management at the China Development Institute (Shenzhen), told a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald that the new cycle of freight rate fluctuations is shifting from being driven by a single factor to being influenced by the resonance of multiple variables.

Ocean Freight Rates for US Routes Double

The global ocean shipping market has recently heated up significantly, with rate increases on US routes being particularly pronounced.

According to a report by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on June 18, market freight rates (including ocean freight and surcharges) for exports from the Port of Shanghai to major US West Coast and East Coast ports stood at $5,683/FEU and $6,873/FEU, respectively—increases of 11.4% and 8.7% over the previous period.

Data from Ningbo Customs indicates that in late April, the freight rate for a 40-foot container from Ningbo to US West Coast ports was approximately $2,900, while the rate to US East Coast ports was around $3,900. By late June, rates for US West Coast routes had approached $6,300, and rates for US East Coast routes neared $7,500.

A freight forwarding industry professional told the reporter that the market for US-bound shipping is currently tight; since mid-March, major shipping companies have been adjusting rates every two weeks, with prices consistently on the rise. Overall, there is a shortage of shipping space; booking on short notice is extremely difficult, issues like overbooked vessels and rolled containers are frequent, and the supply of empty containers is tight.

Since U.S. President Trump's visit to China in May, ocean freight rates for U.S. routes have risen significantly. Coupled with the overcrowding of overseas warehouses, this has had a substantial impact on various sectors of foreign trade.

Since May, my country's exports to the U.S. have shown signs of recovery. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, exports to the U.S. in May rose by 35.6% year-on-year, reaching $39.03 billion.

At its core, ocean freight rates reflect not only current supply-demand dynamics but also market expectations regarding the future trade environment. While the current surge in freight rates for U.S. routes may appear to be a traditional "rush to ship" scenario, the deeper driving factor is the market repricing future policy trajectories.

A Confluence of Multiple Short-Term Demands

This round of rate hikes is the result of a resonance between multiple factors—demand surges driven by tariff expectations, supply contractions due to geopolitical constraints, cost-push pressures, and volatility amplification caused by freight forwarders hoarding space—all occurring against a backdrop of rigid capacity constraints.

The rise in freight rates for U.S. routes stems from both the early arrival of the traditional peak season and demand variables unique to this year.

On one hand, with the World Cup and the North American holiday shopping season approaching—combined with inventory stocking by e-commerce platforms like Amazon and TikTok ahead of major sales events—the traditional peak shipping season (usually July–September) has shifted significantly earlier to June. On the other hand, the U.S. is set to implement a new round of tariffs on July 24, prompting some export companies to accelerate their shipping schedules; this "rush to ship" sentiment has further intensified the concentration of short-term demand.

Regarding overseas warehouses, we are currently in the midst of Amazon Prime Day, which involves a high volume of container arrivals and shipments. We systematically optimized our warehouse operations earlier this year, streamlining everything from storage layout to operational workflows and increasing operational shifts to ensure that goods can be quickly shelved and orders processed rapidly upon arrival.

On the capacity supply side, the direct cause of the rate hike for U.S. routes is that shipping companies have suspended certain sailings, resulting in a shortage of available space. The core issue at present is not an absolute shortage of containers, but rather the extended turnaround times caused by geopolitical factors. Cargo delivery cycles have stretched from the original 20 days to approximately 45 days, effectively doubling the number of containers and the shipping capacity required to maintain operations.

Specifically, global effective capacity is being continuously squeezed by multiple structural factors. First, the Red Sea crisis has forced vessels to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, constantly draining global effective capacity. Port congestion is spreading from the Red Sea region to Asia, reducing vessel turnaround efficiency; routes that previously required six vessels now need eight.

Second, high oil prices have pushed fuel costs to 30%–40% of total expenses, giving shipping companies a strong incentive to maintain higher rates. Since June, shipping giants like MSC and Maersk have successively raised base freight rates and imposed Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) and emergency fuel surcharges.

Furthermore, multi-tiered booking agents amplify order volumes at each level, creating an illusion of surging cargo demand that is transmitted to shipping companies, thereby driving up rates. Digital booking platforms offer the fundamental solution to this problem.

Preparing for risk hedging in the second half of the year

On the surface, the immediate cause of the short-term rate hike is straightforward. However, digging deeper—why are companies rushing to ship goods? The answer lies not merely in current market demand, but largely in uncertainty regarding the future policy environment.

With the tariff "window period" coinciding with the traditional peak season, freight rates are highly likely to remain elevated in the third quarter. Companies are advised to shift their strategies from "cost reduction and efficiency" to "safety redundancy," hedging risks through measures such as diversifying capacity sourcing and utilizing financial instruments like Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs).

Freight forwarders report that, in response to market changes, they are currently employing strategies such as locking in space early, staggering shipments, and diverting cargo across multiple ports and routes. By combining long-term contracts with spot market bookings, they aim to control logistics costs and assist foreign trade enterprises in refining cooperation terms to effectively manage rate volatility.

Viewed against the broader external environment, the global shipping system remains subject to ongoing disruptions. The Red Sea crisis remains unresolved and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East stays complex; consequently, the need for vessels to divert from major shipping lanes and the resulting loss of effective capacity persist. These factors amplify the impact of marginal shifts in supply and demand on freight rates, pushing the shipping market into a phase of high volatility.

Two potential risks loom for the fourth quarter: first, if high oil prices drive up inflation, end-consumer demand could be eroded; second, cargo volumes might decline once tariffs are formally implemented, leading to a divergence in market trends after October.

For export enterprises, the decisive factor is the potential shift in tariff policies over the coming months. Against this backdrop, shipping goods early has emerged as a strategy to mitigate risk. Future trends in the ocean freight market will continue to evolve under the combined influence of policy expectations, trade demand, and consumer market performance.

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