I. Spot Prices of Key Raw Materials and Finished Products

1. #1 Tin Metal (Refined Tin Ingots)

June 25 SunSirs composite benchmark price: 396,000 RMB/ton

Comparison with June 1 benchmark price: 448,000 RMB/ton

Cumulative decline of 52,000 RMB/ton (11.6%) over the period; the price has experienced significant, continuous drops throughout the month.

2. Tin Concentrate (Mainstream 60% Grade Raw Material)

June 25 mainstream market settlement price: 91,200 RMB/ton (metal content basis)

Average price in early June: 96,800 RMB/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 5,600 RMB/ton). Increased imports in May led to a marginal easing of raw material supply; smelting processing fees were raised for two consecutive weeks, slightly weakening the bargaining power of the mining sector.

3. Price Correlation of Key Downstream Processed Products

Electronic Tin Paste (Specialized for High-End AI Packaging)

June 25 average transaction price: 238,000 RMB/ton (vs. 264,000 RMB/ton in early June). Prices moved downward in tandem with tin ingots, though the decline was less steep than that of primary tin, supported by resilient demand for high-end computing consumables.

Standard Solder Bars/Wires

June 25 average price: 382,000 RMB/ton (vs. 431,000 RMB/ton at the start of the month). Dragged down by the traditional off-season for consumer electronics; the rate of decline largely mirrored that of tin ingots.

Tin Consumption and Processing Fees for Tinplate Production

Quotes for sheet processing saw slight downward adjustments; however, weak terminal demand for sheet products prevented the full pass-through of cost savings resulting from the drop in tin ingot prices.

II. Core Logic Behind the Current Cyclical Tin Price Correction (Dual Pressure: Macroeconomic & Supply-Demand)

(i) Systematic Pressure from Tightening Overseas Macroeconomic Liquidity

Overseas employment data significantly exceeded expectations, while wage and inflation figures remained persistently high. Consequently, the market raised its expectations for full-year interest rate hikes, leading to rising US Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar Index. As tin is priced globally in US dollars, a strong dollar suppresses valuations for industrial commodity procurement; consequently, overseas spot tin markets have weakened in tandem, the price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed, import arbitrage opportunities have vanished, and the pace of domestic raw material inflows has slowed.

Global technology equity markets have experienced a broad pullback, with capital exiting the semiconductor and computing power sectors en masse. The sentiment—previously driven by expectations of tin serving as a "computing power metal"—has cooled rapidly; speculative stockpiling has ceased, and traders have offloaded inventory, directly driving a continuous decline in spot tin ingot prices.

(II) Periodic improvement in raw material imports; easing of supply-tightness expectations

Customs data for May showed a significant increase in tin ore imports, with total metal content rising by 17%–20.55% month-on-month. Arrivals from key sources—Myanmar, Africa, and Australia—all increased, overturning the market's previously persistent pessimism regarding supply.

Domestic smelter raw material inventories have rebounded slightly, and tin concentrate processing fees have risen for two consecutive weeks. This indicates a shift in bargaining power back toward mines and a marginal easing of raw material cost pressures for smelters; the earlier market-wide trading logic of "scrambling for ore and stockpiling tin" has collapsed, removing the momentum for spot price increases.

(III) Divergent demand structure: Traditional off-season offsets AI-driven growth

Tin consumption is divided into two segments, creating a dynamic where strength in one area offsets weakness in another:

Growth drivers: AI servers, optical modules, and advanced packaging materials are seeing sustained volume growth. A single unit of computing hardware consumes three times as much tin as a traditional server, and there is stable, inelastic demand for high-end solder paste and high-purity solder spheres—products that command higher price acceptance and serve as the industry chain's sole source of rigid support.

Core drags: Traditional electronics sectors—including standard mobile phones, home appliances, and PCBs—have entered the summer off-season. Downstream solder manufacturers are proactively reducing operating rates and cutting raw material inventories, limiting purchases to essential needs while large-scale stockpiling has completely ceased. The volume of decline in traditional monthly demand outweighs the new consumption driven by AI, resulting in a marginal weakening of overall demand.

(IV) Price transmission dynamics across the industry chain

This market cycle has followed a specific transmission pattern: upstream tin concentrate prices softened first, followed by a sharp drop in refined tin ingot prices, and finally a synchronized—though progressively smaller—decline in prices for mid-to-downstream products like solder and solder paste. Upstream: Prices retreated first due to a surge in port arrivals in May. Midstream: Speculative inventories of tin ingots held by smelters were offloaded en masse, resulting in the sharpest price declines. Downstream: Prices for processed products fell less than those for primary tin, owing to rigid processing costs and price-locking protections on high-end computing power orders. Demand for major downstream products like tinplate remained sluggish; processing firms struggled to pass costs on to customers, leading to continued margin compression.

III. Medium-to-Long-Term Constraints on Global Overseas Tin Supply (Short-Term Ease Does Not Alter Long-Term Tight Balance)

The short-term rebound in May imports merely reflected the arrival of previously delayed shipments; long-standing capacity constraints in key overseas producing regions remain unresolved, and a structural supply gap for raw materials persists in the medium-to-long term:

Myanmar: Mining operations in the Wa State face a triple whammy of restrictions—explosives permit issues, muddy roads during the rainy season, and a 30% in-kind export tax. Production has recovered to only 40–50% of pre-shutdown levels, with monthly tin metal supply stabilizing at around 1,500 tons; significant increases are unlikely, and the rainy season starting in July will further hamper mining and transport.

DR Congo: The Goma border crossing closed in late May; given the roughly six-week shipping lag, import figures for July will drop significantly. Additionally, localized outbreaks are disrupting artisanal mining output.

Indonesia: Export controls have tightened, causing refined tin exports to fall by nearly 20% year-on-year and shrinking the volume of globally circulating supply.

Overall, the short-term rise in imports is a temporary fluctuation. With lengthy recovery cycles for overseas mine capacity and high global resource concentration, the logic of a tight medium-to-long-term supply balance remains intact, limiting the scope for a deep price collapse.

IV. Current Supply and Demand Across the Domestic Industry Chain

Upstream: Tin Concentrate

May’s surge in arrivals led to a short-term replenishment of inventories, but the pace of overseas shipments slowed again in June. Domestic smelters hold only enough raw material for 1–2 months of turnover, with no significant surplus stocks. While concentrate prices have fallen in tandem with tin ingots, high extraction costs at overseas mines have dampened the willingness to sell at low prices, providing solid support for price floors. Midstream: Refined Tin Smelting

With raw material supplies easing slightly and spot prices falling, smelters have proactively controlled output; operating rates have dipped in the short term, and the volume of circulating finished goods has decreased, somewhat cushioning the decline in tin ingot prices. While a rebound in smelting processing fees has slightly improved production margins, the pullback in spot prices continues to dampen corporate willingness to produce and sell, resulting in no active moves to increase output. Domestic spot inventories have seen a slight buildup, with traders offloading stock acting as the immediate driver of the short-term price decline.

Downstream Sector-Specific Demand Details

High-end semiconductor/AI computing soldering materials: Long-term contract orders remain plentiful, and production loads stay high; steady, inelastic demand for tin ingots makes this the strongest support link in the entire supply chain, with high-end solder paste prices showing the greatest resilience against declines.

Traditional consumer electronics solder: During the summer off-season, production schedules for end-market appliances and mobile phones have slowed; solder manufacturers have reduced operating loads and output, leading to a month-on-month contraction in raw material procurement.

Tinplate: Demand for food packaging and appliance casings remains lackluster; plate exports have only marginally offset weak domestic demand, resulting in insufficient growth in tin consumption.

Chemical-grade tin and niche alloys: Demand remains stable with no significant increase or decrease, having a negligible impact on overall market trends.

V. Outlook: Phased Spot Price Forecast

Macroeconomic concerns regarding interest rate hikes, combined with the traditional off-season for electronics, keep tin ingot spot prices fluctuating at the lower end of the range; however, long-term supply constraints from overseas mines, inelastic demand for high-end AI-related materials, and a floor set by mining costs limit the potential for a deep price drop.

Short-term factors include increased import volumes, trader destocking, and sluggish procurement in traditional downstream sectors during the off-season.

SunSirs has been continuously tracking price data for over 200 commodities for nearly 20 years, please contact support@sunsirs.com for subscription.