I. Customs Import Data for Edible Vegetable Oils (May 2026 and Jan–May 2026)

Customs statistics show that the total volume of domestic edible vegetable oil imports reached 500,000 tons in May 2026, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. Cumulative imports for January through May totaled 2.93 million tons, up 17.5% year-on-year. While the overall volume of oil imports maintained significant growth, trends varied markedly across different varieties.

Soybean Oil: Imports totaled 10,000 tons in May (+17.4% year-on-year) and 30,000 tons for the January–May period (+20.8% year-on-year). The import base for soybean oil is low, and the volume of increase remains limited; domestic supply relies primarily on crushing locally grown soybeans.

Palm Oil: Imports reached 220,000 tons in May (+25.2% year-on-year) and 1.11 million tons for the January–May period (a sharp 54.8% year-on-year increase). Palm oil accounts for the largest share of domestic vegetable oil imports; the surge in arrivals from Southeast Asia was the primary driver of overall growth in oil imports.

Rapeseed Oil: Imports totaled 210,000 tons in May (+4.0% year-on-year) and 970,000 tons for the January–May period (-5.6% year-on-year). Although there was a slight monthly rebound, the total import volume for the first five months declined year-on-year; tighter overseas rapeseed supplies and rising import costs have constrained the scale of arrivals for the year.

Soybeans (Crushing Raw Material): Soybean imports totaled 11.791 million tons in May (-15.3% year-on-year) and 36.942 million tons for the January–May period (a slight 0.4% year-on-year decline). The year-on-year weakening of soybean imports limited the increase in domestic crushing activity, indirectly constraining soybean oil output.

Summary of Overall Import Trends: Palm oil imports saw explosive growth, filling the domestic demand gap for low-melting-point oils; total annual rapeseed oil imports contracted; soybean oil supply relied on domestic crushing, with imports playing a negligible supplementary role; and the decline in soybean arrivals imposed a medium-to-long-term supply constraint on soybean oil. II. Spot Market Trends, Prices, and Market Dynamics for Edible Vegetable Oils (June 23)

(I) Palm Oil Spot Market

Price Performance: Mainstream spot prices for 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong stood at 9,230 RMB/ton, up RNMB 30 from the previous day. The benchmark price tracked by SunSirs saw a similar slight rise; Malaysian FOB quotes remained stable, while the comprehensive import cost edged up, keeping import margins in negative territory.

Market Logic: A surge in palm oil imports in May provided medium-term supply support, yet a significant month-on-month increase in Malaysian exports during early June sustained the global destocking trend. While crude oil prices fell following the easing of US-Iran tensions—dampening demand for biodiesel—domestic demand for food and personal care products remained stable. Spot prices rose slightly in tandem; traders held stocks while adopting a wait-and-see approach, and downstream buyers replenished inventory in small quantities based on immediate needs.

Inventory: Domestic port inventories of palm oil continued to decline, showing a slight month-on-month drop. Spot market supply was not abundant, and the basis remained strong.

(II) Soybean Oil Spot Market

Price Performance: Spot prices for Grade 1 soybean oil in Tianjin were 8,450 RMB/ton, remaining flat for the day.

The SunSirs benchmark price for soybean oil was 8,482 RMB/ton, fluctuating within a narrow range. Mainstream prices in Zhangjiagang ranged from 8,380 to 8,660 RMB/ton, with normal regional price differentials.

Market Logic: Although soybean imports in May declined year-on-year, domestic crushing operations remained at high levels, pushing national commercial soybean oil inventories to 1.2 million tons; this ongoing accumulation exerted downward pressure on prices. With the catering and food processing sectors entering their traditional off-season, end-user willingness to stock up was weak. Spot prices lacked upward momentum and traded sideways, while traders increasingly offered price concessions to move stock.

Basis: Spot prices traded at a premium to near-month contracts but were weaker against far-month contracts, reflecting strong market expectations of ample future supply.

(III) Rapeseed Oil Spot Market

Price Performance: Spot prices for Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu were 10,080 RMB/ton, down RMB50 from the previous day, making it the only variety among the three major oils to weaken. Market Logic: Cumulative rapeseed oil imports from January to May fell year-on-year; however, a recent concentration of rapeseed arrivals has boosted crushing volumes, leading to a month-on-month rise in rapeseed oil inventories. Domestic consumption is seasonally sluggish, and while substitution-driven procurement has increased, spot prices have faced downward pressure. Spot prices trade at a significant premium to forward contracts, reflecting strong market expectations of ample future supply.

Industry Chain: Overseas rapeseed quotes have weakened, improving import crushing margins; with rapeseed arrivals likely to increase further, spot rapeseed oil prices remain under downward pressure.

(IV) Overall Vegetable Oil Market Trading Sentiment (June 23)

On this day, the domestic vegetable oil spot market showed divergent trends: palm oil strengthened slightly, soybean oil traded sideways with fluctuations, and rapeseed oil weakened slightly.

At the macro level, a US-Iran agreement led to a pullback in international crude oil prices and cooled expectations for biodiesel demand, limiting the upside potential for vegetable oils. Regarding imports, palm oil continues to arrive in large volumes, pointing to ample supply in the medium-to-long term. Downstream food and catering sectors are in a clear off-season; bulk stockpiling has ceased, and trading is limited to sporadic transactions meeting immediate needs. Traders are keen to offload inventory, resulting in overall sluggish trading activity.

III. Market Summary

Palm Oil

Imports surged in May, yet major global producing nations continue to draw down stocks, leading to tight short-term circulating supply.

Demand for essential use in food and personal care products remains stable, with persistent demand for substitution using low-melting-point oils.

Expectations of seasonal production declines in Southeast Asia are gradually rising.

Falling crude oil prices have dampened biodiesel consumption; ample future supply growth limits the potential for significant price increases.

Soybean Oil

Soybean imports have declined year-on-year, constraining long-term growth in crushing volumes.

Domestic commercial inventories continue to accumulate, and weak off-season demand from end-users is capping spot price levels.

Rapeseed Oil

Cumulative annual imports have fallen year-on-year, indicating a long-term contraction in supply.

Recent concentrated rapeseed arrivals have boosted crushing and raised rapeseed oil inventories, while the off-season slump in consumption weighs on prices.

IV. Short-term Market Outlook

In the short term, the domestic edible oil market is expected to exhibit a pattern of divergent, fluctuating trends. Palm oil prices are showing slight strength supported by low inventory levels, though gains are capped by weakness in crude oil prices. Soybean oil remains range-bound, weighed down by high inventories, while rapeseed oil faces continued downward pressure in the near term. Key factors to monitor in the medium term include the pace of Southeast Asian palm oil exports, domestic soybean arrivals and crushing rates, and the recovery of downstream food service consumption; market trends will continue to rotate in line with shifts in supply, demand, and inventory levels.

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